Insights

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10 popular questions about monetary policy

Where are we in the cycle?

2008 PTSD VS THE GHOSTS OF THE 1970S

Shorter and Less Variable

Things that won't happen in 2023

Inflation was always the Endgame

How High for Unemployment in the coming US Recession

Optimism: Mild US recession followed by a recovery and 2% inflation

The nightmare scenario for central banks

Commodities: burden of proof is with the bulls

The year of the payback

FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

All eyes on oil as the commodity rally narrows

A recession to tame inflation?

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

The cycle starts to bite

QT's inflationary potential is real

Get ready for the super-charging of US-China decoupling

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

US inflation to set a new course

Don't bet on a soft landing

US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion

Russia-Ukraine war: Initial market take

FOMC Minutes + Retail Sales + Industrial Prod. = 50BP in March

"Late cycle" comes early

Short shortages - in charts

Hawkish Bank of England plays ‘catch-up’ with the cycle

Powell lowers the strike price on the Fed's put

US inflation - It's not about the rent

Don't extrapolate from this fake business cycle

‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now

The Sellside Guide to Christmas

Powell underplays hawkish turn

First Fed hike in March - it's not about current inflation

Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it

Covid: Omicron variant - first take

Hawkish markets to force global policy response?

Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story

Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish

FOMC: AIT over before it starts?

Evergrande China growth contagion

When the V starts to fade

Delta blues

Reading through US unemployment

The Bank of England’s monetary ‘put’ need not imply static policy

Fed resets the betting table

Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst

Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit

Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle

Bond market takes a breather

Do consumers ever borrow again?

Global Tourism: EU & China risk

US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

Secular turning point in inflation?

U.S. inflation has to wait

ECB Yield Curve Control?

Oil: new playbook, same old cycle

EU recovery fund – which sectors get the funds?

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

Commodity Supercycle now on? Potential is there

The undead fuel

Chip Famine and the new OPEC

Biden's first climate moves and GM blaze the trail

Geopolitical Spotlight shifts to semiconductors - the new oil

China's green revolution

The Fed hits a wall

On the road in India with protesting farmers

What is normal anyway? Our clients respond

Biden's Inaugural to build populism

The 2020 ABC

Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)

The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers

Double-Dip Recession on the way?

QE Nuclear Options

EM: Vaccine rotation impact

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective

The Fed's Shortened Timeline

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

The Equity Market is now in charge

Emerging Markets in 6 Charts

Long covid

Housing supply splurge

Perma-frosts and fiery endgames

Ranking FX risk

Digital RMB - a new type of stimulus

Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

Brexit: Sticking to our "inevitable FTA" view

Portfolios in the post-Covid world

K-runch Time

China outperformance to continue

UK economy at inflection point

Japan: nothing more permanent than a temporary solution

World Trade momentum

Amid US election chaos and second wave fears, it’s time for caution

Central Banks are changing

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

Tech selloff may soon be over – but for how long?

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?

The message from gold and industrial commodities

Looking through Korea’s second wave

Republicans set to party like its 1968

July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

US-China warpaths converge on tech

Bubbles, Covid-19 and digital disruption

If the Fed buys stocks? Then sell

Road to inflation

Last dance for US fiscal spending

Lessons from the lockdown

Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?

Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

Politics of unemployment to reign

Investors can’t rely on central banks

Why we remain bears

COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle

Further stimulus needed

Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?

Fed policy pivots to the 10 year

The war on deflation

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn

Emerging Markets: The coming growth collapse

Roadmap for US inflation

Fire starter?

7 reasons the rally won't last

Buyside bust & the dollar crunch

Fed's new role - Treasury's bank

Where are we in the COVID-19 crisis?

Covid-19 Crisis Roadmap

World slump - weak rebound

Sudden stop

The bear and fear stalk the world

What can policymakers do?

Three reasons markets were ignoring the coronavirus

The rules to being a sellside economist

The case of the disappearing euros

Is the consensus wrong?

Credit Risk

Green shoots?

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

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