TS Lombard Insights on Macro Research, Geopolitical Investments and Investment Strategy

Steven Blitz

Steven joined TS Lombard in 2017. His professional experience as economist and portfolio manager began in the late 1970s. It includes econometric modelling at Data Resources Inc., creating interest rate and FX derivatives strategies at Salomon Brothers, managing US and global fixed-income portfolios at OFFITBANK, being global head of fixed-income at Lazard Asset Management and, more recently, as Chief Economist at M Science he developed “big data” to underpin his analysis of the economy, central bank policies, and capital market pricing. Aside from his extensive client-facing work, Steven is a well-known commentator on economic and financial issues, is frequently quoted in the financial press, appearing on TV and radio, and writing guest columns for financial publications.

July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done

27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.

#US Economy #Durable Goods

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

17 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.

#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit

Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?

14 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Equity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet

Politics of unemployment to reign

26 Jun 2020 - Steven Blitz

As the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Fiscal Policy #Bear Market #Unemployment #US Election

Fed policy pivots to the 10 year

22 May 2020 - Steven Blitz

Once the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve

Roadmap for US inflation

23 Apr 2020 - Steven Blitz

The near-term inflation outlook for the US economy is straightforward – there is none. Demand has collapsed, not supply, and there is no way that inflation will pick up until demand rises at least to meet supply. There.

#Inflation #US Economy

Fed's new role - Treasury's bank

31 Mar 2020 - Steven Blitz

The Fed ramped up its balance sheet by over $500bn in the past week to $5.3trn (it was $4.2trn a month ago), to support its first line efforts to keep markets liquid and reduce the dollar’s scarcity value through swap.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet