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US-China warpaths converge on tech

14 Aug 2020 - Christopher Granville

It is no accident that the escalation has concentrated on tech, while financial sector measures have remained relatively restrained for now. All the various strands and sources of US reactions to the rise of China now.

#China #US #Christopher Granville #semiconductor #tech war

Expensive stocks outperform only in bubbles

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

We looked at S&P 500 normalized valuations over the past 30 years and the subsequent 12-month returns. As expected, returns were high after stocks had traded at cheap valuations. Surprisingly, however, they also did.

#Equities #stock market #Andrea Cicione #bubble

Tech surged, the rest were left behind

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

The “Fabulous Five” (AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL,FB) and many other tech stocks are capturing an increasing larger share of total US profits and, as a result, have come to account for a quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap..

#Technology #Andrea Cicione #FAANGs

A hawkish PBoC

07 Aug 2020 - Bo Zhuang

The PBoC adopted a more hawkish tone in its latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Targets for credit growth and interest rate cuts were removed. However, support for the real economy remains via RRR cut.

#Interest Rates #China #Bo Zhuang #PBoC

Only US and Swiss equities have provided appealing returns in the last 30 years

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Do DM ex-US equities deserve to be called an asset class? In the past 30 years, they have provided fixed income-like returns, albeit with more volatility. Even the diversification benefit has been minimal: the.

#Eurozone #Equities #Andrea Cicione

Italy and Spain will receive the largest shares of the fund

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

The allocation of Recovery Fund grants in 2021-22 has already been decided: Italy will receive the largest share, closely followed by Spain. Grants comprise €390bn of the fund’s total €750bn pot, and it is reasonable to.

#Eurozone #Andrea Cicione #Recovery Fund

Rich stocks produced above-average returns in the past, but only during the dot-com bubble

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

We looked at S&P 500 normalized valuations over the past 30 years and the subsequent 12-month returns. As expected, returns were high after stocks had traded at cheap valuations. Surprisingly, however, they also did.

#Technology #stock market #Andrea Cicione #bubble

US one of few equity markets with good returns

07 Aug 2020 - Andrea Cicione

DM ex-US equities are like fixed income with added volatility. The chart plots the long-term annualized returns of a number of equity markets. Starting in 1990, it captures both the dot-com and subprime bubbles as well.

#Equities #Andrea Cicione

Reopening drives diverging outcomes

06 Aug 2020 - Jon Harrison

Economic activity is increasing, but lockdown easing has stalled as EM impose targeted measures, while Covid, trade, inflation and policy response are driving diverging EM outcomes. We upgrade overall EM risk to.

#Inflation #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #lockdown #trade

Sharp drop in correlations among EM equity

06 Aug 2020 - Jon Harrison

Correlations among EM assets have fallen sharply since the height of the pandemic. Covid, trade, inflation and policy response are driving diverging EM outcomes. While China remains the EM with the strongest policy.

#Inflation #China #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #coronavirus #trade

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