Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish
29 Sep 2021 - Dario PerkinsCentral banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #InflationFOMC: AIT over before it starts?
27 Sep 2021 - Steven BlitzThe equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.
#Federal Reserve #Equities #US EconomyEvergrande China growth contagion
27 Sep 2021 - Rory GreenEvergrande is collapsing. China’s second-largest developer by sales and largest in terms of total debt and liabilities is no longer a viable business. The extent of the macro and market spill-overs both on the Mainland.
#China #Fiscal Policy #Commodities #EvergrandeWhen the V starts to fade
17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #VolatilityDelta blues
27 Aug 2021 - Oliver BrennanThe US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.
#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variantReading through US unemployment
05 Jul 2021 - Steven BlitzThis was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #RecoveryThe Bank of England’s monetary ‘put’ need not imply static policy
28 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisJune’s MPC meeting delivered no surprises, but the debate within the Committee is becoming more nuanced. A closer look at the minutes reveals early signs of a rift between 1) those members on alert for imminent signs of.
#Inflation #Interest Rates #Bank Of England #Quantitative EasingFed resets the betting table
21 Jun 2021 - Steven BlitzAt Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #RecoveryBonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst
15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #RecoveryMid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit
11 May 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThis economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets