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The cycle starts to bite
11 May 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets
YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’
29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisPronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.
#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market
‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now
13 Jan 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisTime to play catch-up. Policymakers have finally dropped the “transitory” narrative and are playing catch-up, rushing to normalize monetary settings closer in line with last year’s sharp positive macro turnaround. While.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bond markets
Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst
15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery
Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit
11 May 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThis economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
Perma-frosts and fiery endgames
06 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bond-equity correlation has gone mainstream in 2020, thanks in part to what happened in March when yields spiked even as equities crumbled (i.e. there was a POSITIVE correlation in returns). While this was.
#Central Banks #Equities #Bond markets
World Trade momentum
06 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos VenetisMacro momentum is easing but remains positive. Our Global Leading Indicator remains consistent with improving macro momentum, in line with the message from other widely followed high-frequency series like the OECD.
#Equities #China #Bond markets #Commodities #USD
COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle
16 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsCOVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #Covid19
