Blogs - coronavirus

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

09 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

With every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.

#Eurozone #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus

Investors can’t rely on central banks

24 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #policymaker #macro economy #investors

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle

16 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

COVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Dario Perkins #Bonds #coronavirus

Crisis Roadmap: In charts

15 Jun 2020 - Oliver Brennan

The crisis roadmap is our framework for analysing the progress of the global political, economic and market response to the COVID-19 crisis. Our two previous updates (After the false dawn and Miracle cures).

#coronavirus #stock market #Oliver Brennan

Further stimulus needed

10 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

As the global economy exits “lockdown”, improving macro data will provide a further boost to investors determined to look-through the deepest economic contraction they will see in their lifetimes. Yet the economic.

#Dario Perkins #coronavirus

Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?

26 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.

#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus

The war on deflation

15 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

01 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

Watching financial markets, it is tempting to think the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over. Equity values have bounced and credit spreads have narrowed, even as the oil market continues to suffer alarming strains..

#Monetary Policy #Recession #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #bull market

Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn

29 Apr 2020 - Oliver Brennan

One month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.

#Eurozone #US #coronavirus #Oliver Brennan

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