Blogs - dario perkins

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.


Three reasons markets were ignoring the coronavirus

14 Feb 2020 - Dario Perkins

The contrast between the awful humanitarian crisis in China and the euphoria in global stock markets had been bordering on the surreal. Every night (London time) the Chinese authorities updated their count of the number.

#China #Dario Perkins #coronavirus #stock market

The rules to being a sellside economist

21 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

1) Economic forecasts: Forecasting GDP is basically a waste of time - no investor actually cares what this backward-looking gauge of the economy is doing. But getting it "right" is one of the few (though dubious) ways.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #GDP #Recession #Economy #Dario Perkins

Is the consensus wrong?

09 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

This is the time of year when economists across the financial sector are busily marketing their chunky ‘year ahead’ volumes. There is an old joke that the savvy investor should take note of whatever consensus emerged.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Dario Perkins #2020 outlook

Credit Risk

20 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Back in 2018, we warned about what we called the ‘Buy-side Bubble’. To the extent we could identify vulnerabilities in global markets, the clearest danger involved a powerful search for yield. Investors had naturally.

#Equities #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #bbb bulge #global economy #capital markets #buy side bubble

Green shoots?

04 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Investor sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. This was certainly the message from the latest BoAML survey – which showed portfolio managers, distinctly less negative about the global economy, suddenly piling into.

#China #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #Growth #Reflation

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

03 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Despite the recent selloff in bonds, which reflects the pricing-out of near-term recession risk, the experience of the last decade suggests yields are unlikely to rise materially without something "breaking" in global.

#Global Fractures #Jobs #Dario Perkins #Globalization #Populism #Productivity

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.  Not only is the global economic outlook becoming more uncertain, but bonds and equities appear to.

#Bond yields #Interest Rates #Equities #Recession #Bond markets #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Bonds

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2. Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers.

#Monetary Policy #Recession #Economy #FOMC #US #Dario Perkins

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