Insights - federal reserve

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‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now

13 Jan 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Time to play catch-up. Policymakers have finally dropped the “transitory” narrative and are playing catch-up, rushing to normalize monetary settings closer in line with last year’s sharp positive macro turnaround. While.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bond markets

Powell underplays hawkish turn

17 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

The march to a March hike is on, assuming, of course, no great downward swerve in growth and/or inflation between now and then. The FOMC sees three hikes in 2022 and this pacing alone tells you March comes first. Powell.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

First Fed hike in March - it's not about current inflation

09 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

March will mark the first Fed rate hike, sooner than the June timing I recently shifted to, and much sooner than the original Q4 call made in November 2020. The timing is being pulled forward because the circumstances.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it

02 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story

25 Oct 2021 - Steven Blitz

Global supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.

#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales

FOMC: AIT over before it starts?

27 Sep 2021 - Steven Blitz

The equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.

#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy

Reading through US unemployment

05 Jul 2021 - Steven Blitz

This was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

Fed resets the betting table

21 Jun 2021 - Steven Blitz

At Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst

15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery

Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit

11 May 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

This economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets

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