Blogs - steven blitz

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Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US #US Economy #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #unemployment #US election #deficit

Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?

14 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Equity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet #Steven Blitz

Politics of unemployment to reign

26 Jun 2020 - Steven Blitz

As the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #bear market #unemployment #US election #economic outlook

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

Fed policy pivots to the 10 year

22 May 2020 - Steven Blitz

Once the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve #Steven Blitz

Roadmap for US inflation

23 Apr 2020 - Steven Blitz

The near-term inflation outlook for the US economy is straightforward – there is none. Demand has collapsed, not supply, and there is no way that inflation will pick up until demand rises at least to meet supply. There.

#Inflation #US #Steven Blitz #Dario Perkins

7 reasons the rally won't last

21 Apr 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Andrea Cicione, our Head of Strategy, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, answer the following 7 questions: Equity markets have rallied on the back of unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. Why do we think.

#Federal Reserve #Steven Blitz #coronavirus #Andrea Cicione

Fed's new role - Treasury's bank

31 Mar 2020 - Steven Blitz

The Fed ramped up its balance sheet by over $500bn in the past week to $5.3trn (it was $4.2trn a month ago), to support its first line efforts to keep markets liquid and reduce the dollar’s scarcity value through swap.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #Steven Blitz

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas/Steven Blitz

As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Global Fractures #Monetary Policy #Trade War #Bond yields #ECB #Inflation #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #Euro Crisis #Fiscal Policy

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