Blogs - steven blitz

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Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Jobs #Steven Blitz #unemployment

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Steven Blitz #unemployment

Republicans set to party like its 1968

27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

Markets focus on comparative tax policies, but this election is about raising fear among the electorate in order to drive voter turnout – fear will determine the outcome. The ability to convert voters is so small.

#Steven Blitz #US election

July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done

27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.

#US Economy #Steven Blitz #durable goods

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

17 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.

#Equities #Steven Blitz #coronavirus #unemployment #retail sales #unemployment benefits #sp 500

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US #US Economy #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #unemployment #US election #deficit

Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?

14 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Equity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet #Steven Blitz

Politics of unemployment to reign

26 Jun 2020 - Steven Blitz

As the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #bear market #unemployment #US election #economic outlook

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Steven Blitz #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

Fed policy pivots to the 10 year

22 May 2020 - Steven Blitz

Once the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve #Steven Blitz

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