Insights - us economy

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Optimism: Mild US recession followed by a recovery and 2% inflation

18 Jul 2022 - Steven Blitz

The story of this cycle does not end when recession begins, the story, in fact, begins with the direction Fed policy takes once unemployment starts to rise. Recession of some sort was always inevitable to curb.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

16 Jun 2022 - Steven Blitz

Powell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

16 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

There was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story

25 Oct 2021 - Steven Blitz

Global supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.

#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales

FOMC: AIT over before it starts?

27 Sep 2021 - Steven Blitz

The equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.

#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy

Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

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