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Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins joined TS Lombard in 2011 and is Managing Director, Global Macro. He covers a wide range of global macroeconomic themes and writes the fortnightly Macro Picture. Dario has extensive experience as an economist in both the public and private sectors. At the UK Treasury he co-ordinated Gordon Brown’s global economic forecasts and was responsible for designing the structure of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee. He also produced an important review of the BoE following the 2008 crash. At ABN AMRO he was the City’s top-rated European economist for three consecutive years, earning a reputation for his communication skills and central-bank forecasting record.
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Recent Posts

A recession to tame inflation?

19 May 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Don't extrapolate from this fake business cycle

13 Jan 2022 - Dario Perkins

Edgar Fiedler, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford administrations, famously joked: “Ask five economists a question and you'll get five different answers – six, if one.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Recovery

The Sellside Guide to Christmas

24 Dec 2021 - Dario Perkins

 The Christmas blockbuster: For economists, Christmas is all about the big “Year Ahead” publication. Even though it’s obvious nobody actually reads these tomes (except, maybe, other sellsiders), they have to be really.

#Central Banks #Bank Of England #FX Market #Cryptocurrency #Christmas

Hawkish markets to force global policy response?

04 Nov 2021 - Dario Perkins

A simple narrative is taking over financial markets, especially the short end of the yield curve, where the idea that central banks are “behind the curve” is rapidly gaining traction. Initially, it was just the emerging.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish

29 Sep 2021 - Dario Perkins

Central banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)

23 Dec 2020 - Dario Perkins

This was something we published back in 2013 – the Economists’ guide to Christmas. But we made a serious omission, by leaving out Modern Monetary Theory. So here’s an update, incl. MMT: ‘If you put two economists in a.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #European Central Bank #Bank Of England #Bank of Japan #Modern Monetary Theory

QE Nuclear Options

19 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

An effective COVID-19 vaccine is great news because it will save lives and means we might still escape from the current economic crisis with minimal long-term scarring. Yet, the global economy faces a difficult winter,.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #International Monetary Fund #Macro Picture

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

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