TS Lombard Insights on Macro Research, Geopolitical Investments and Investment Strategy

Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins joined TS Lombard in 2011 and is Managing Director, Global Macro. He covers a wide range of global macroeconomic themes and writes the fortnightly Macro Picture. Dario has extensive experience as an economist in both the public and private sectors. At the UK Treasury he co-ordinated Gordon Brown’s global economic forecasts and was responsible for designing the structure of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee. He also produced an important review of the BoE following the 2008 crash. At ABN AMRO he was the City’s top-rated European economist for three consecutive years, earning a reputation for his communication skills and central-bank forecasting record.

Shorter and Less Variable

02 Feb 2023 - Dario Perkins

There is a bull market in sellside economists predicting recessions. Ask any of them why they believe 2023 will produce an even worse macro environment than 2022 and you can be sure the words “long and variable lags”.

Things that won't happen in 2023

21 Dec 2022 - Dario Perkins

Since we first published our annual “Things that won’t happen” outlook in 2015, writing outlandish non-forecasts has become considerably more difficult. Back then, nobody would have taken us seriously if we had said.

Inflation was always the Endgame

04 Nov 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is beautiful irony in macroeconomics, a sort of inherent Minsky dynamic, or universal Goodhart law, that means that just when everyone thinks something is definitively true, it turns out to be spectacularly false..

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Recession #Unemployment

The nightmare scenario for central banks

14 Jul 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every investor wants to know whether central banks are prepared to cause a recession in order to force inflation down. Surely, officials are bluffing, right? But think about it from the central banker’s perspective..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Eurozone #United Kingdom

A recession to tame inflation?

19 May 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Don't extrapolate from this fake business cycle

13 Jan 2022 - Dario Perkins

Edgar Fiedler, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford administrations, famously joked: “Ask five economists a question and you'll get five different answers – six, if one.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Recovery

The Sellside Guide to Christmas

24 Dec 2021 - Dario Perkins

The Christmas blockbuster: For economists, Christmas is all about the big “Year Ahead” publication. Even though it’s obvious nobody actually reads these tomes (except, maybe, other sellsiders), they have to be really.

#Central Banks #Bank Of England #FX Market #Cryptocurrency #Christmas

Hawkish markets to force global policy response?

04 Nov 2021 - Dario Perkins

A simple narrative is taking over financial markets, especially the short end of the yield curve, where the idea that central banks are “behind the curve” is rapidly gaining traction. Initially, it was just the emerging.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish

29 Sep 2021 - Dario Perkins

Central banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation