Insights - monetary policy

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How High for Unemployment in the coming US Recession

26 Jul 2022 - Steven Blitz

There are any number of ways to dissect the spread between the 7% job openings rate and 3.5% unemployment, but the needed drop in demand’s contribution to current inflation occurs when this spread turns negative..

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Recession #Unemployment

Optimism: Mild US recession followed by a recovery and 2% inflation

18 Jul 2022 - Steven Blitz

The story of this cycle does not end when recession begins, the story, in fact, begins with the direction Fed policy takes once unemployment starts to rise. Recession of some sort was always inevitable to curb.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

The nightmare scenario for central banks

14 Jul 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every investor wants to know whether central banks are prepared to cause a recession in order to force inflation down. Surely, officials are bluffing, right? But think about it from the central banker’s perspective..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Eurozone #United Kingdom

The year of the payback

20 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

The markets remain caught in the pincer movement between a hawkish Fed and slowing world growth: 2022 is “payback year” following the outsized gains of 2021. Inflation looks like it is about to peak but at the same time.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #China #OPEC

FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

16 Jun 2022 - Steven Blitz

Powell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’

29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Pronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.

#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market

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