Insights - monetary policy

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Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

The Fed's Shortened Timeline

12 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

The vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing

The Equity Market is now in charge

09 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

Biden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election

K-runch Time

12 Oct 2020 - Dario Perkins

Data for other countries confirms the tendency for inequality to widen during recessions, though the picture is more mixed than the US experience – because it depends, in part, on the policy response. UK disparities,.

#Monetary Policy #Fiscal Policy #Inequality #K Recovery

Central Banks are changing

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Once upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation

The message from gold and industrial commodities

01 Sep 2020 - Konstantinos Venetis

The nature of the Covid-19 shock makes this macro cycle unique – but this is still a macro cycle. The pattern remains the same. A contraction in GDP is met with counter-cyclical policy measures that aim to get the.

#Monetary Policy #Reflation #Gold #Commodities

COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle

16 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

COVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #Covid19

The war on deflation

15 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Covid19

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

01 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

Watching financial markets, it is tempting to think the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over. Equity values have bounced and credit spreads have narrowed, even as the oil market continues to suffer alarming strains..

#Monetary Policy #Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market #Bull Market

Fire starter?

21 Apr 2020 - Dario Perkins

Policymakers all over the world have responded forcefully to COVID-19, using war-time analogies to justify massive expansions in their budget deficits. With governments adding up to 20% pts of GDP to their national.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Debt #Covid19

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