Insights - monetary policy

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The year of the payback

20 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

The markets remain caught in the pincer movement between a hawkish Fed and slowing world growth: 2022 is “payback year” following the outsized gains of 2021. Inflation looks like it is about to peak but at the same time.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #China #OPEC

FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

16 Jun 2022 - Steven Blitz

Powell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’

29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Pronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.

#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

"Late cycle" comes early

18 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Whether one views the last couple of years as a break in the business cycle or the beginning of a new cycle, the bigger point is this has been a cycle on steroids: in terms of its amplitude, the speed of maturity and.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Commodities

Hawkish Bank of England plays ‘catch-up’ with the cycle

04 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

A 25bp hike was already in the price ahead of February’s meeting and the MPC did not disappoint, paving the way for ‘passive QT’ as the policy rate has now reached the 0.50% threshold for allowing maturing gilts to roll.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bank Of England

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