Insights - inflation

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Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst

15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery

Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit

11 May 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

This economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets

Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

U.S. inflation has to wait

12 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

Any inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.

#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery

Oil: new playbook, same old cycle

05 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

We have often made the argument that although the nature of the Covid shock makes this macro cycle unique, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that this remains a cycle. The same is true of the oil market..

#Inflation #OPEC #Commodities #Oil

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

01 Mar 2021 - Shweta Singh

Headline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

The Fed hits a wall

29 Jan 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble

What is normal anyway? Our clients respond

22 Jan 2021 - Oliver Brennan

At our MacroFest virtual event on 12th and 13th January, we discussed the outlook for global growth, global markets, energy, deglobalization and, of course, COVID-19, among many other topics. As a follow-up to the.

#Inflation #Eurozone #Emerging Markets #Covid19 #Currencies #USD #Vaccine

Central Banks are changing

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Once upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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