Insights - inflation

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A recession to tame inflation?

19 May 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

The cycle starts to bite

11 May 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

The macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

16 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

There was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

US inflation to set a new course

14 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

The historic analogue for current inflation does not lie in the 1970s, and the Fed’s on-again off-again response. Inflation in the 1960s eventually strained the Bretton Woods fixed-currency system to the point where it.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Commodities #Stagflation

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

"Late cycle" comes early

18 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Whether one views the last couple of years as a break in the business cycle or the beginning of a new cycle, the bigger point is this has been a cycle on steroids: in terms of its amplitude, the speed of maturity and.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Commodities

Short shortages - in charts

10 Feb 2022 - Rory Green

The pandemic demand shift and supply mismatch catalysed a surge in global goods inflation. The supply side is improving to meet the new Covid-19 demand reality just as DM consumers transition to services spending..

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Semiconductors

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