Blogs - recession

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World slump - weak rebound

26 Mar 2020 - Charles Dumas

Widespread hopes for a V-shaped recovery from the impending recession will probably be dashed. And stock markets are only likely to rebound sharply if they fall a lot further from here – at Tuesday's Close the S&P index.

#Equities #Recession #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #bear market

The bear and fear stalk the world

10 Mar 2020 - Charles Dumas

Global spread of the Covid-19 virus looks likely to cause a worldwide recession and bear market in stocks. Nobody knows how serious the disease is likely to be. But The Brookings Institution’s estimates suggest a.

#Equities #Recession #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

The rules to being a sellside economist

21 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

1) Economic forecasts: Forecasting GDP is basically a waste of time - no investor actually cares what this backward-looking gauge of the economy is doing. But getting it "right" is one of the few (though dubious) ways.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #GDP #Recession #Economy #Dario Perkins

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #QE #Liquidity #Balance Sheet #Recession #Steven Blitz #Debt

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.  Not only is the global economic outlook becoming more uncertain, but bonds and equities appear to.

#Bond yields #Interest Rates #Equities #Recession #Bond markets #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Bonds

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steven Blitz

    As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March. The question is whether the easing from QT (already in the market, see chart) and China’s stimulus will be enough to help.

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Recession #Yield curve inversion #QT #FOMC #Jerome Powell #Steven Blitz

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2. Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers.

#Monetary Policy #Recession #Economy #FOMC #US #Dario Perkins

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