Insights - recession

Our charts and insights showcase our thought-leadership on key issues in macro research, geopolitical investment and investment strategy. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


TS Lombard has a 30 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.

How High for Unemployment in the coming US Recession

26 Jul 2022 - Steven Blitz

There are any number of ways to dissect the spread between the 7% job openings rate and 3.5% unemployment, but the needed drop in demand’s contribution to current inflation occurs when this spread turns negative..

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Recession #Unemployment

FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

16 Jun 2022 - Steven Blitz

Powell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

A recession to tame inflation?

19 May 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Don't extrapolate from this fake business cycle

13 Jan 2022 - Dario Perkins

Edgar Fiedler, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford administrations, famously joked: “Ask five economists a question and you'll get five different answers – six, if one.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Recovery

US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

26 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

The “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery

Double-Dip Recession on the way?

24 Nov 2020 - Davide Oneglia

A virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.

#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

VIDEO
Video

Video

View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

READ MORE
TRACK RECORD
Track Record

Track Record

We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

READ MORE
PRESS
Press

Press

To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com .

READ MORE