Blogs - recession

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Double-Dip Recession on the way?

24 Nov 2020 - Davide Oneglia

A virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.

#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Housing supply splurge

06 Nov 2020 - Oliver Brennan

The Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.

#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment

Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?

01 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.

#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

If the Fed buys stocks? Then sell

05 Aug 2020 - Charles Dumas

October 1929 – the Wall Street Crash is gathering frightening momentum. Several leading Wall Street bankers get together and decide to backstop the stock market, they come out swinging, placing a bid to purchase a large.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #Stock Market

Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

09 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

With every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.

#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19

The war on deflation

15 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Covid19

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