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US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward
26 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzThe “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery
Double-Dip Recession on the way?
24 Nov 2020 - Davide OnegliaA virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.
#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19
Long covid
06 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.
#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19
Housing supply splurge
06 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanThe Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.
#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit
Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative
30 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzThe rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.
#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market
The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?
17 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsIt is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.
#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture
August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge
04 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzNot that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.
#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment
Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?
01 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.
#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales
If the Fed buys stocks? Then sell
05 Aug 2020 - Charles DumasOctober 1929 – the Wall Street Crash is gathering frightening momentum. Several leading Wall Street bankers get together and decide to backstop the stock market, they come out swinging, placing a bid to purchase a large.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #Stock Market
Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?
09 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsWith every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.
#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19
