Blogs

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.


The case of the disappearing euros

09 Jan 2020 - Constantine Fraser

We’ve been saying for long time that a fiscal boost is necessary to rebalance the EA and to kickstart growth. At first glance, member states’ Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) for 2020 suggest they’re starting to listen. But.

#ECB #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Constantine Fraser #Germany #Euro

Is the consensus wrong?

09 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

This is the time of year when economists across the financial sector are busily marketing their chunky ‘year ahead’ volumes. There is an old joke that the savvy investor should take note of whatever consensus emerged.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Dario Perkins #2020 outlook

Credit Risk

20 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Back in 2018, we warned about what we called the ‘Buy-side Bubble’. To the extent we could identify vulnerabilities in global markets, the clearest danger involved a powerful search for yield. Investors had naturally.

#Equities #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #bbb bulge #global economy #capital markets #buy side bubble

China’s new national pipeline company moves ahead

10 Dec 2019 - Stephen O'Sullivan

China announced the formal creation of a state-owned enterprise to manage the country’s oil and gas pipelines. This is a reform that has been under discussion for some time and has long been rumoured to be imminent..

#Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Oil & Gas

Green shoots?

04 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Investor sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. This was certainly the message from the latest BoAML survey – which showed portfolio managers, distinctly less negative about the global economy, suddenly piling into.

#China #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #Growth #Reflation

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

03 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Despite the recent selloff in bonds, which reflects the pricing-out of near-term recession risk, the experience of the last decade suggests yields are unlikely to rise materially without something "breaking" in global.

#Global Fractures #Jobs #Dario Perkins #Globalization #Populism #Productivity

China gas slowdown - why is it happening?

01 Nov 2019 - Stephen O'Sullivan

China’s dramatic growth in gas demand in 2017 and 2018, surpassing all expectations, may be coming to an end, with widespread implications for the global gas market and a number of energy companies around the world.

#Energy #Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Coal #Gas market #LNG

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas/Steven Blitz

As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Global Fractures #Monetary Policy #Trade War #Bond yields #ECB #Inflation #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #Euro Crisis #Fiscal Policy

Draghi: Veni, vidi, QE, finit

24 Oct 2019 - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh assesses how Mario Draghi has left ECB bank policy and concludes that Christine Lagarde will have very few policy options available. “Mario Draghi has ended his term as the ECB President, paving the way for.

#ECB #TLTRO #Draghi #Lagarde #QE #Shweta Singh

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #QE #Liquidity #Balance Sheet #Recession #Steven Blitz #Debt

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