Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?
09 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsWith every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.
#Eurozone #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus
Big Oil and the Energy Transition: Out of their comfort zone?
30 Jun 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanThe Energy Transition is upon us and one of the key challenges facing today’s oil and gas companies is: how do they address the fundamental changes that are needed in their business to adapt to, take part in and thrive.
#Stephen O'Sullivan #oil #energy transition #shell #IEA #gas #bp
Politics of unemployment to reign
26 Jun 2020 - Steven BlitzAs the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..
#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #bear market #unemployment #US election #economic outlook
Investors can’t rely on central banks
24 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #policymaker #macro economy #investors
Why we remain bears
23 Jun 2020 - Charles DumasThis blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.
#US Economy #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market
COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle
16 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsCOVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Dario Perkins #Bonds #coronavirus
Crisis Roadmap: In charts
15 Jun 2020 - Oliver BrennanThe crisis roadmap is our framework for analysing the progress of the global political, economic and market response to the COVID-19 crisis. Our two previous updates (After the false dawn and Miracle cures).
#coronavirus #stock market #Oliver Brennan
Further stimulus needed
10 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsAs the global economy exits “lockdown”, improving macro data will provide a further boost to investors determined to look-through the deepest economic contraction they will see in their lifetimes. Yet the economic.
#Dario Perkins #coronavirus
OPEC+ agrees to extend big output cuts for another month
08 Jun 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanLate last Friday night I was asked to comment by a well-known journal on what OPEC+ might do about oil production, given that their next meeting was fast approaching. I said I thought they would extend their 9.7 mbd.
#OPEC #Russia #Saudi Arabia #oil
Is peak oil now behind us?
27 May 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanIn the last blog on energy a couple of weeks ago A bad week for Big Oil... with worse to come?, I highlighted two different views about Peak Oil out in the market: those who thought that the moment of Peak Oil (as in.
#Stephen O'Sullivan #OPEC #Russia #Saudi Arabia #oil
