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When the V starts to fade

17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #Volatility

Delta blues

27 Aug 2021 - Oliver Brennan

The US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.

#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variant

Reading through US unemployment

05 Jul 2021 - Steven Blitz

This was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

The Bank of England’s monetary ‘put’ need not imply static policy

28 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

June’s MPC meeting delivered no surprises, but the debate within the Committee is becoming more nuanced. A closer look at the minutes reveals early signs of a rift between 1) those members on alert for imminent signs of.

#Inflation #Interest Rates #Bank Of England #Quantitative Easing

Fed resets the betting table

21 Jun 2021 - Steven Blitz

At Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst

15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery

Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit

11 May 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

This economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets

Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle

30 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

It has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather.

#Federal Reserve #Commodities #Oil

Bond market takes a breather

14 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

If there is one theme that marked the first quarter of 2021, it is the upturn in bond yields. February saw real interest rates take up the baton from inflation expectations as the primary force behind rising long US.

#Liquidity #Stimulus #Stock Market

Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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