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Bond market takes a breather

14 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

If there is one theme that marked the first quarter of 2021, it is the upturn in bond yields. February saw real interest rates take up the baton from inflation expectations as the primary force behind rising long US.

#Liquidity #Stimulus #Stock Market

Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

Global Tourism: EU & China risk

29 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

One year into the pandemic, still enduring tough restrictions on social life, entertainment activities, and leisure travel, we bet most people crave a long holiday. With the acceleration in the vaccine rollout,.

#Eurozone #China #Tourism

US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

26 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

The “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery

Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

U.S. inflation has to wait

12 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

Any inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.

#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery

ECB Yield Curve Control?

09 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The US bond sell-off last week sent waves through global bond markets causing Euro Area(EA) risk-free and sovereign debt curves to steepen at rapid pace, as investors offloaded long-term paper. ECB officials were fast.

#Eurozone #Yield curve #Fiscal Policy

Oil: new playbook, same old cycle

05 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

We have often made the argument that although the nature of the Covid shock makes this macro cycle unique, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that this remains a cycle. The same is true of the oil market..

#Inflation #OPEC #Commodities #Oil

EU recovery fund – which sectors get the funds?

03 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The €750bn Next Generation EU Fund (NGEU, aka EU Recovery Fund) has been launched to prevent the asymmetric impact of the pandemic from exacerbating existing growth divergence across member states and to lift long-term.

#Eurozone #Fiscal Policy

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

01 Mar 2021 - Shweta Singh

Headline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

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