Blogs

Our charts and blogs showcase our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


Digital RMB - a new type of stimulus

23 Oct 2020 - Rory Green

Both the Fed and the ECB have grabbed headlines recently with talk of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). But of all CBDC projects currently in the works, it is the one by the People’s Bank of China that is nearest.

#China #Stimulus #People's Bank of China #Digital RMB #Cryptocurrency

Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

23 Oct 2020 - Marcus Chenevix

Amid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.

#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG

Brexit: Sticking to our "inevitable FTA" view

19 Oct 2020 - Christopher Granville

Neither the FX market nor most commentators are taking at face value Boris Johnson’s statement on October 16th that “trade talks [with the EU] are over”. While I would definitely agree with this sceptical view of what.

#Eurozone #Brexit #United Kingdom #Tariffs #US Election #Asset Allocation #FX Market

UK economy at inflection point

07 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos Venetis

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has vowed to “balance the books”, yet pressure to keep the fiscal taps loose is unlikely to let up anytime soon. The government’s backstops have put a floor under the economy, but as the mid-year.

#Bank Of England #United Kingdom #Labour Market

Japan: nothing more permanent than a temporary solution

06 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos Venetis

The appointment of Yoshihide Suga marks the end of Abenomics in name, but not in substance. And while this may look like an opportune time to press on somewhat harder with 'third arrow' structural reforms, we would not.

#Abenomics #Bank of Japan #Yen

Amid US election chaos and second wave fears, it’s time for caution

06 Oct 2020 - Lawrence Brainard

Most EM equity markets are trading well below their January highs, which suggests recovery potential, but we believe that now is not the time to increase exposures. Our reasons do not reflect a strong conviction that EM.

#Emerging Markets

Central Banks are changing

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Once upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment

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