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The 2020 ABC
28 Dec 2020 - Oliver BrennanThere are two types of economist: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. That’s why our final blog of the year usually gives “anti-forecasts” – outlandish things that definitely won’t happen. But.
#Brexit #2020 outlook #Covid19 #Recovery Fund #K Recovery #Quantitative Easing #Modern Monetary Theory
Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)
23 Dec 2020 - Dario PerkinsThis was something we published back in 2013 – the Economists’ guide to Christmas. But we made a serious omission, by leaving out Modern Monetary Theory. So here’s an update, incl. MMT: ‘If you put two economists in a.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #European Central Bank #Bank Of England #Bank of Japan #Modern Monetary Theory
The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers
30 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanFill in the form below to download the full report - The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers, by Oliver Brennan, Managing Director, Macro Strategy. What does the great rotation mean for countries’ economies? Is it.
#Eurozone #China #Vaccine #Recovery
Double-Dip Recession on the way?
24 Nov 2020 - Davide OnegliaA virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.
#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19
QE Nuclear Options
19 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsAn effective COVID-19 vaccine is great news because it will save lives and means we might still escape from the current economic crisis with minimal long-term scarring. Yet, the global economy faces a difficult winter,.
#Central Banks #Liquidity #International Monetary Fund #Macro Picture
EM: Vaccine rotation impact
17 Nov 2020 - Jon HarrisonThe prospect of a vaccine will drive a rotation to underperforming EM assets at the expense of outperformers. EM exporters will benefit from rising global growth, while growing inflationary pressures will shift the.
#Emerging Markets #Vaccine
BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective
13 Nov 2020 - Christopher Granville“Where might be the catch?” This question about the prospects for the vaccine route to suppressing the pandemic arises naturally from financial markets’ acclamation of last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Before.
#Fiscal Policy #Stimulus #Vaccine
The Fed's Shortened Timeline
12 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzThe vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing
Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts
09 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsCovid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.
#Fiscal Policy #Covid19
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
