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Chip Famine and the new OPEC
19 Feb 2021 - Rory GreenSurging demand for semiconductors is putting pressure on vehicle production and US-China relations. Taiwan and Korea are the prime beneficiaries, insatiable demand for their exports and rising prices adds conviction to.
#Trade War #China #Technology #OPEC #Semiconductors #Geopolitics
Geopolitical Spotlight shifts to semiconductors - the new oil
10 Feb 2021 - Rory GreenThe structural shift in demand for semiconductors moves the focus of global geopolitics and finance from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. The rapid acceleration of the “internet of things”, to-date and to-come,.
#China #Oil & Gas #OPEC #Semiconductors #Geopolitics
The Fed hits a wall
29 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble
On the road in India with protesting farmers
29 Jan 2021 - Amitabh DubeyThe farmers remain determined despite protracted protests. At the farmers’ protest site at Ghazipur on Delhi’s eastern border with Uttar Pradesh, the atmosphere had been determined and upbeat when I visited 2 weeks ago..
#Emerging Markets #India
What is normal anyway? Our clients respond
22 Jan 2021 - Oliver BrennanAt our MacroFest virtual event on 12th and 13th January, we discussed the outlook for global growth, global markets, energy, deglobalization and, of course, COVID-19, among many other topics. As a follow-up to the.
#Inflation #Eurozone #Emerging Markets #Covid19 #Currencies #USD #Vaccine
Biden's Inaugural to build populism
20 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzNot being Trump is not enough to successfully govern through the next four years, Biden must turn the base that elected him into a base for him. He will have this political challenge in mind as policies are initiated to.
#Populism #US Election #USD
The 2020 ABC
28 Dec 2020 - Oliver BrennanThere are two types of economist: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. That’s why our final blog of the year usually gives “anti-forecasts” – outlandish things that definitely won’t happen. But.
#Brexit #2020 outlook #Covid19 #Recovery Fund #K Recovery #Quantitative Easing #Modern Monetary Theory
Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)
23 Dec 2020 - Dario PerkinsThis was something we published back in 2013 – the Economists’ guide to Christmas. But we made a serious omission, by leaving out Modern Monetary Theory. So here’s an update, incl. MMT: ‘If you put two economists in a.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #European Central Bank #Bank Of England #Bank of Japan #Modern Monetary Theory
The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers
30 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanFill in the form below to download the full report - The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers, by Oliver Brennan, Managing Director, Macro Strategy. What does the great rotation mean for countries’ economies? Is it.
#Eurozone #China #Vaccine #Recovery
Double-Dip Recession on the way?
24 Nov 2020 - Davide OnegliaA virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.
#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19
