The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?
17 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsIt is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.
#Recession #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #unemployment #Macro Picture #recovery
August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge
04 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzNot that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.
#Recession #US Economy #Steven Blitz #unemployment
Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?
01 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.
#Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus #unemployment #lockdown #retail sales
The message from gold and industrial commodities
01 Sep 2020 - Konstantinos VenetisThe nature of the Covid-19 shock makes this macro cycle unique – but this is still a macro cycle. The pattern remains the same. A contraction in GDP is met with counter-cyclical policy measures that aim to get the.
#Monetary Policy #Reflation #gold #Konstantinos Venetis #Commodities
Looking through Korea’s second wave
28 Aug 2020 - Rory GreenSecond wave does not change our positive Korean economy, equity, or FX position. Since April, we picked Korea as a relative outperformer due to three core factors: Virus containment success Tech heavy exports profiting.
#Rory Green #coronavirus #Korea
Republicans set to party like its 1968
27 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzMarkets focus on comparative tax policies, but this election is about raising fear among the electorate in order to drive voter turnout – fear will determine the outcome. The ability to convert voters is so small.
#Steven Blitz #US election
July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done, it is all about growth expectations from here on out
27 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzThe cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.
#US Economy #Steven Blitz #durable goods
Retail boosted by equities, not $600
17 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzThe $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.
#Equities #Steven Blitz #coronavirus #unemployment #retail sales #unemployment benefits #sp 500
Bubbles, Covid-19 and digital disruption
07 Aug 2020 - Dario PerkinsArguments about a bubble in equities continue, with US tech at the center of the dispute. Some are drawing comparisons with Dotcom in the 1990s. Yet the economic risks are greater this time. Big tech companies provide.
#Equities #Technology #Dario Perkins #bubble
If the Fed buys stocks? Then sell
05 Aug 2020 - Charles DumasOctober 1929 – the Wall Street Crash is gathering frightening momentum. Several leading Wall Street bankers get together and decide to backstop the stock market, they come out swinging, placing a bid to purchase a large.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #Charles Dumas #stock market
