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When the V starts to fade
17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #Volatility
Delta blues
27 Aug 2021 - Oliver BrennanThe US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.
#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variant
Reading through US unemployment
05 Jul 2021 - Steven BlitzThis was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
The Bank of England’s monetary ‘put’ need not imply static policy
28 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisJune’s MPC meeting delivered no surprises, but the debate within the Committee is becoming more nuanced. A closer look at the minutes reveals early signs of a rift between 1) those members on alert for imminent signs of.
#Inflation #Interest Rates #Bank Of England #Quantitative Easing
Fed resets the betting table
21 Jun 2021 - Steven BlitzAt Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst
15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery
Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit
11 May 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThis economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets
Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle
30 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisIt has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather.
#Federal Reserve #Commodities #Oil
Bond market takes a breather
14 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisIf there is one theme that marked the first quarter of 2021, it is the upturn in bond yields. February saw real interest rates take up the baton from inflation expectations as the primary force behind rising long US.
#Liquidity #Stimulus #Stock Market
Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
