The case of the disappearing euros
09 Jan 2020 - Constantine FraserWe’ve been saying for long time that a fiscal boost is necessary to rebalance the EA and to kickstart growth. At first glance, member states’ Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) for 2020 suggest they’re starting to listen. But.
#ECB #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Constantine Fraser #Germany #Euro
Is the consensus wrong?
09 Jan 2020 - Dario PerkinsThis is the time of year when economists across the financial sector are busily marketing their chunky ‘year ahead’ volumes. There is an old joke that the savvy investor should take note of whatever consensus emerged.
#Central Banks #Inflation #Dario Perkins #2020 outlook
Credit Risk
20 Dec 2019 - Dario PerkinsBack in 2018, we warned about what we called the ‘Buy-side Bubble’. To the extent we could identify vulnerabilities in global markets, the clearest danger involved a powerful search for yield. Investors had naturally.
#Equities #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #bbb bulge #global economy #capital markets #buy side bubble
China’s new national pipeline company moves ahead
10 Dec 2019 - Stephen O'SullivanChina announced the formal creation of a state-owned enterprise to manage the country’s oil and gas pipelines. This is a reform that has been under discussion for some time and has long been rumoured to be imminent..
#Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Oil & Gas
Green shoots?
04 Dec 2019 - Dario PerkinsInvestor sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. This was certainly the message from the latest BoAML survey – which showed portfolio managers, distinctly less negative about the global economy, suddenly piling into.
#China #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #Growth #Reflation
Global Fractures: Big bond crash
03 Dec 2019 - Dario PerkinsDespite the recent selloff in bonds, which reflects the pricing-out of near-term recession risk, the experience of the last decade suggests yields are unlikely to rise materially without something "breaking" in global.
#Global Fractures #Jobs #Dario Perkins #Globalization #Populism #Productivity
China gas slowdown - why is it happening?
01 Nov 2019 - Stephen O'SullivanChina’s dramatic growth in gas demand in 2017 and 2018, surpassing all expectations, may be coming to an end, with widespread implications for the global gas market and a number of energy companies around the world.
#Energy #Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Coal #Gas market #LNG
The Folly Of Inflation Targets
31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas/Steven BlitzAs part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Global Fractures #Monetary Policy #Trade War #Bond yields #ECB #Inflation #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #Euro Crisis #Fiscal Policy
Draghi: Veni, vidi, QE, finit
24 Oct 2019 - Shweta SinghShweta Singh assesses how Mario Draghi has left ECB bank policy and concludes that Christine Lagarde will have very few policy options available. “Mario Draghi has ended his term as the ECB President, paving the way for.
#ECB #TLTRO #Draghi #Lagarde #QE #Shweta Singh
Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession
22 Oct 2019 - Steven BlitzSteven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place..
#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #QE #Liquidity #Balance Sheet #Recession #Steven Blitz #Debt
