Blogs

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.


Three reasons markets were ignoring the coronavirus

14 Feb 2020 - Dario Perkins

The contrast between the awful humanitarian crisis in China and the euphoria in global stock markets had been bordering on the surreal. Every night (London time) the Chinese authorities updated their count of the number.

#China #Dario Perkins #coronavirus #stock market

China focuses on increasing gas output in an era of trade wars

13 Feb 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

  Faced with rising gas demand – albeit now rising at a slower pace - China has been seeking to boost domestic gas production to stem its growing dependency on imports. Given the ongoing trade war with the US, energy.

#Trade War #Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Gas market #LNG #Oil & Gas #PetroChina

Slowdown in Chinese gas demand growth linked to changing power

23 Jan 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

It’s the money, honey China’s gas demand growth has risen steadily – and rapidly – in recent years. There was particularly strong growth in 2017 and 2018 as the government’s coal-to-gas switching programme drove demand.

#China #Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Coal #Gas market #LNG #PetroChina

The rules to being a sellside economist

21 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

1) Economic forecasts: Forecasting GDP is basically a waste of time - no investor actually cares what this backward-looking gauge of the economy is doing. But getting it "right" is one of the few (though dubious) ways.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #GDP #Recession #Economy #Dario Perkins

The case of the disappearing euros

09 Jan 2020 - Constantine Fraser

We’ve been saying for long time that a fiscal boost is necessary to rebalance the EA and to kickstart growth. At first glance, member states’ Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) for 2020 suggest they’re starting to listen. But.

#ECB #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Constantine Fraser #Germany #Euro

Is the consensus wrong?

09 Jan 2020 - Dario Perkins

This is the time of year when economists across the financial sector are busily marketing their chunky ‘year ahead’ volumes. There is an old joke that the savvy investor should take note of whatever consensus emerged.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Dario Perkins #2020 outlook

Credit Risk

20 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Back in 2018, we warned about what we called the ‘Buy-side Bubble’. To the extent we could identify vulnerabilities in global markets, the clearest danger involved a powerful search for yield. Investors had naturally.

#Equities #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #bbb bulge #global economy #capital markets #buy side bubble

China’s new national pipeline company moves ahead

10 Dec 2019 - Stephen O'Sullivan

China announced the formal creation of a state-owned enterprise to manage the country’s oil and gas pipelines. This is a reform that has been under discussion for some time and has long been rumoured to be imminent..

#Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Oil & Gas

Green shoots?

04 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Investor sentiment has shifted in recent weeks. This was certainly the message from the latest BoAML survey – which showed portfolio managers, distinctly less negative about the global economy, suddenly piling into.

#China #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #Growth #Reflation

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

03 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Despite the recent selloff in bonds, which reflects the pricing-out of near-term recession risk, the experience of the last decade suggests yields are unlikely to rise materially without something "breaking" in global.

#Global Fractures #Jobs #Dario Perkins #Globalization #Populism #Productivity

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