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Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it
02 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
Covid: Omicron variant - first take
26 Nov 2021 - Andrea CicioneThese are our initial thoughts on the new Covid variant: We don’t know enough about the B.1.1.529 variant to draw any specific conclusions at this stage. We know that it has many mutations on the protein spike, which.
#Liquidity #Equities #Covid19 #Stock Market
Hawkish markets to force global policy response?
04 Nov 2021 - Dario PerkinsA simple narrative is taking over financial markets, especially the short end of the yield curve, where the idea that central banks are “behind the curve” is rapidly gaining traction. Initially, it was just the emerging.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation
Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story
25 Oct 2021 - Steven BlitzGlobal supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.
#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales
Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish
29 Sep 2021 - Dario PerkinsCentral banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation
FOMC: AIT over before it starts?
27 Sep 2021 - Steven BlitzThe equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.
#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy
Evergrande China growth contagion
27 Sep 2021 - Rory GreenEvergrande is collapsing. China’s second-largest developer by sales and largest in terms of total debt and liabilities is no longer a viable business. The extent of the macro and market spill-overs both on the Mainland.
#China #Fiscal Policy #Commodities #Evergrande
When the V starts to fade
17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #Volatility
Delta blues
27 Aug 2021 - Oliver BrennanThe US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.
#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variant
Reading through US unemployment
05 Jul 2021 - Steven BlitzThis was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
