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Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it

02 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Covid: Omicron variant - first take

26 Nov 2021 - Andrea Cicione

These are our initial thoughts on the new Covid variant: We don’t know enough about the B.1.1.529 variant to draw any specific conclusions at this stage. We know that it has many mutations on the protein spike, which.

#Liquidity #Equities #Covid19 #Stock Market

Hawkish markets to force global policy response?

04 Nov 2021 - Dario Perkins

A simple narrative is taking over financial markets, especially the short end of the yield curve, where the idea that central banks are “behind the curve” is rapidly gaining traction. Initially, it was just the emerging.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story

25 Oct 2021 - Steven Blitz

Global supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.

#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales

Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish

29 Sep 2021 - Dario Perkins

Central banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

FOMC: AIT over before it starts?

27 Sep 2021 - Steven Blitz

The equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.

#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy

Evergrande China growth contagion

27 Sep 2021 - Rory Green

Evergrande is collapsing. China’s second-largest developer by sales and largest in terms of total debt and liabilities is no longer a viable business. The extent of the macro and market spill-overs both on the Mainland.

#China #Fiscal Policy #Commodities #Evergrande

When the V starts to fade

17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #Volatility

Delta blues

27 Aug 2021 - Oliver Brennan

The US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.

#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variant

Reading through US unemployment

05 Jul 2021 - Steven Blitz

This was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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