Blogs

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


Is peak oil now behind us?

27 May 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

In the last blog on energy a couple of weeks ago A bad week for Big Oil... with worse to come?, I highlighted two different views about Peak Oil out in the market: those who thought that the moment of Peak Oil (as in.

#Stephen O'Sullivan #OPEC #Russia #Saudi Arabia #oil

Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?

26 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.

#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus

Fed policy pivots to the 10 year

22 May 2020 - Steven Blitz

Once the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.

#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve #Steven Blitz

The war on deflation

15 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus

A bad week for Big Oil... with worse to come?

07 May 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

The last week was quieter in the oil markets as far as prices were concerned and there was a steady drift upwards on the back of some economies partially reopening. It was, however, reporting week for the oil companies.

#Stephen O'Sullivan #Oil & Gas #OPEC #oil price #Russia

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

01 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

Watching financial markets, it is tempting to think the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over. Equity values have bounced and credit spreads have narrowed, even as the oil market continues to suffer alarming strains..

#Monetary Policy #Recession #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #bull market

Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn

29 Apr 2020 - Oliver Brennan

One month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.

#Eurozone #US #coronavirus #Oliver Brennan

Emerging Markets: The coming growth collapse

28 Apr 2020 - Jon Harrison

Some EM lockdowns are starting to ease. Many EM economies are now 3-4 weeks into restrictive measures and progress is seemingly being made on flattening the curve. Thoughts are turning to the exit strategy. India and.

#Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #coronavirus

After oil at -$40, what next?

27 Apr 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

Last Monday we warned that oil prices could turn negative.  That evening they did just that, with the main US domestic grade WTI trading as low as -$40/bbl for the May contract (sellers were paying buyers to take the.

#Stephen O'Sullivan #OPEC #oil price #Russia #oil

Roadmap for US inflation

23 Apr 2020 - Steven Blitz

The near-term inflation outlook for the US economy is straightforward – there is none. Demand has collapsed, not supply, and there is no way that inflation will pick up until demand rises at least to meet supply. There.

#Inflation #US #Steven Blitz #Dario Perkins

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