Digital RMB - a new type of stimulus
23 Oct 2020 - Rory GreenBoth the Fed and the ECB have grabbed headlines recently with talk of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). But of all CBDC projects currently in the works, it is the one by the People’s Bank of China that is nearest.
#China #Stimulus #People's Bank of China #Digital RMB #Cryptocurrency
Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come
23 Oct 2020 - Marcus ChenevixAmid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.
#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG
Brexit: Sticking to our "inevitable FTA" view
19 Oct 2020 - Christopher GranvilleNeither the FX market nor most commentators are taking at face value Boris Johnson’s statement on October 16th that “trade talks [with the EU] are over”. While I would definitely agree with this sceptical view of what.
#Eurozone #Brexit #United Kingdom #Tariffs #US Election #Asset Allocation #FX Market
UK economy at inflection point
07 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos VenetisChancellor Rishi Sunak has vowed to “balance the books”, yet pressure to keep the fiscal taps loose is unlikely to let up anytime soon. The government’s backstops have put a floor under the economy, but as the mid-year.
#Bank Of England #United Kingdom #Labour Market
Japan: nothing more permanent than a temporary solution
06 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos VenetisThe appointment of Yoshihide Suga marks the end of Abenomics in name, but not in substance. And while this may look like an opportune time to press on somewhat harder with 'third arrow' structural reforms, we would not.
#Abenomics #Bank of Japan #Yen
Amid US election chaos and second wave fears, it’s time for caution
06 Oct 2020 - Lawrence BrainardMost EM equity markets are trading well below their January highs, which suggests recovery potential, but we believe that now is not the time to increase exposures. Our reasons do not reflect a strong conviction that EM.
#Emerging Markets
Central Banks are changing
30 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsOnce upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation
Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative
30 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzThe rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.
#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market
The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?
17 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsIt is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.
#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture
August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge
04 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzNot that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.
#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment
