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Global Tourism: EU & China risk
29 Mar 2021 - Davide OnegliaOne year into the pandemic, still enduring tough restrictions on social life, entertainment activities, and leisure travel, we bet most people crave a long holiday. With the acceleration in the vaccine rollout,.
#Eurozone #China #Tourism
ECB Yield Curve Control?
09 Mar 2021 - Davide OnegliaThe US bond sell-off last week sent waves through global bond markets causing Euro Area(EA) risk-free and sovereign debt curves to steepen at rapid pace, as investors offloaded long-term paper. ECB officials were fast.
#Eurozone #Yield curve #Fiscal Policy
EU recovery fund – which sectors get the funds?
03 Mar 2021 - Davide OnegliaThe €750bn Next Generation EU Fund (NGEU, aka EU Recovery Fund) has been launched to prevent the asymmetric impact of the pandemic from exacerbating existing growth divergence across member states and to lift long-term.
#Eurozone #Fiscal Policy
What is normal anyway? Our clients respond
22 Jan 2021 - Oliver BrennanAt our MacroFest virtual event on 12th and 13th January, we discussed the outlook for global growth, global markets, energy, deglobalization and, of course, COVID-19, among many other topics. As a follow-up to the.
#Inflation #Eurozone #Emerging Markets #Covid19 #Currencies #USD #Vaccine
The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers
30 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanFill in the form below to download the full report - The Vaccine Matrix: Winners and Losers, by Oliver Brennan, Managing Director, Macro Strategy. What does the great rotation mean for countries’ economies? Is it.
#Eurozone #China #Vaccine #Recovery
Double-Dip Recession on the way?
24 Nov 2020 - Davide OnegliaA virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.
#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19
Brexit: Sticking to our "inevitable FTA" view
19 Oct 2020 - Christopher GranvilleNeither the FX market nor most commentators are taking at face value Boris Johnson’s statement on October 16th that “trade talks [with the EU] are over”. While I would definitely agree with this sceptical view of what.
#Eurozone #Brexit #United Kingdom #Tariffs #US Election #Asset Allocation #FX Market
Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?
09 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsWith every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.
#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19
Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn
29 Apr 2020 - Oliver BrennanOne month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.
#Eurozone #US Economy #Covid19
The case of the disappearing euros
09 Jan 2020 - Constantine FraserWe’ve been saying for long time that a fiscal boost is necessary to rebalance the EA and to kickstart growth. At first glance, member states’ Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) for 2020 suggest they’re starting to listen. But.
#European Central Bank #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Germany
