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Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative
30 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzThe rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.
#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market
The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?
17 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsIt is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.
#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture
August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge
04 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzNot that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.
#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment
Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?
01 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.
#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales
Retail boosted by equities, not $600
17 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzThe $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.
#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales
Road to inflation
27 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsInflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.
#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment
Last dance for US fiscal spending
23 Jul 2020 - Steven BlitzRepublican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.
#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit
Politics of unemployment to reign
26 Jun 2020 - Steven BlitzAs the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..
#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Fiscal Policy #Bear Market #Unemployment #US Election
