Insights - central banks

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Why central banks are suddenly sounding hawkish

29 Sep 2021 - Dario Perkins

Central banks across the world have pivoted to a more hawkish mode in recent weeks. While this is in part acknowledgement that the recovery from COVID is continuing – albeit more hesitantly than officials expected at.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)

23 Dec 2020 - Dario Perkins

This was something we published back in 2013 – the Economists’ guide to Christmas. But we made a serious omission, by leaving out Modern Monetary Theory. So here’s an update, incl. MMT: ‘If you put two economists in a.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #European Central Bank #Bank Of England #Bank of Japan #Modern Monetary Theory

QE Nuclear Options

19 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

An effective COVID-19 vaccine is great news because it will save lives and means we might still escape from the current economic crisis with minimal long-term scarring. Yet, the global economy faces a difficult winter,.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #International Monetary Fund #Macro Picture

Perma-frosts and fiery endgames

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bond-equity correlation has gone mainstream in 2020, thanks in part to what happened in March when yields spiked even as equities crumbled (i.e. there was a POSITIVE correlation in returns). While this was.

#Central Banks #Equities #Bond markets

Central Banks are changing

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Once upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation

Road to inflation

27 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

Inflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment

Investors can’t rely on central banks

24 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market

Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?

26 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.

#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

The war on deflation

15 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Covid19

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