Insights - federal reserve

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Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

The cycle starts to bite

11 May 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

The macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

16 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

There was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

US inflation to set a new course

14 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

The historic analogue for current inflation does not lie in the 1970s, and the Fed’s on-again off-again response. Inflation in the 1960s eventually strained the Bretton Woods fixed-currency system to the point where it.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Commodities #Stagflation

US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion

28 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

The short-term implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pales next to the longer-run consequences, but the world focuses on the short-term and so too does this note (with a coda on the long-run). First off, Biden.

#Federal Reserve #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war: Initial market take

25 Feb 2022 - Andrea Cicione

Markets normally react negatively to geopolitical risks but soon lose interest. The North Korea crisis of 2017-18 is a prime example of this: since it’s impossible to put a price on a nuclear war, markets simply decided.

#Federal Reserve #Oil & Gas #Oil Price #Russia #Commodities #Ukraine #War

FOMC Minutes + Retail Sales + Industrial Prod. = 50BP in March

21 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets are 60/40 favouring a 25bp rate hike in March vs 50bp. I was similarly positioned until January retail sales, industrial production, and the FOMC minutes were released. January retail sales more than reversed.

#Federal Reserve #Employment #Recovery

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