Insights - federal reserve

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Reading through US unemployment

05 Jul 2021 - Steven Blitz

This was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

Fed resets the betting table

21 Jun 2021 - Steven Blitz

At Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.

#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery

Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst

15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

The second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery

Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit

11 May 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

This economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets

Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle

30 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

It has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather.

#Federal Reserve #Commodities #Oil

Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

26 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

The “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

01 Mar 2021 - Shweta Singh

Headline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

Commodity Supercycle now on? Potential is there

01 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

There are two questions that the current debate on the commodity cycle tends to conflate. Does the rally that kicked off in spring 2020 have further to go? And are we in the early stages of a so-called “supercycle”,.

#Federal Reserve #Stimulus #Commodities #Oil

The Fed hits a wall

29 Jan 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble

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