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How High for Unemployment in the coming US Recession
26 Jul 2022 - Steven BlitzThere are any number of ways to dissect the spread between the 7% job openings rate and 3.5% unemployment, but the needed drop in demand’s contribution to current inflation occurs when this spread turns negative..
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Recession #Unemployment
Optimism: Mild US recession followed by a recovery and 2% inflation
18 Jul 2022 - Steven BlitzThe story of this cycle does not end when recession begins, the story, in fact, begins with the direction Fed policy takes once unemployment starts to rise. Recession of some sort was always inevitable to curb.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
Commodities: burden of proof is with the bulls
07 Jul 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe breadth of the commodity rally started narrowing in early March, when the dust from Russia-Ukraine shock began to settle. Industrial metals topped out first and rolled over decisively in April – around the same time.
#Federal Reserve #China #Commodities
The year of the payback
20 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe markets remain caught in the pincer movement between a hawkish Fed and slowing world growth: 2022 is “payback year” following the outsized gains of 2021. Inflation looks like it is about to peak but at the same time.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #China #OPEC
FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?
16 Jun 2022 - Steven BlitzPowell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy
All eyes on oil as the commodity rally narrows
13 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisCommodity prices continue to trend higher but the breadth of the rally has narrowed: industrial metals have corrected lower in 2022 Q2, leaving energy prices to pull the cart. Where do we go from here? The case for a.
#Federal Reserve #OPEC #Commodities #Oil
Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...
18 May 2022 - Steven BlitzThe shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
The cycle starts to bite
11 May 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets
QT's inflationary potential is real
25 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarkets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"
14 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarch CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy
