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US inflation - It's not about the rent
18 Jan 2022 - Steven BlitzThe inflation problem for the US is not rent, but the loss of zero inflation in goods prices as an offset, and this offset is unlikely to return in the coming cycle. One can say current goods price inflation is the.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Recovery
Powell underplays hawkish turn
17 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzThe march to a March hike is on, assuming, of course, no great downward swerve in growth and/or inflation between now and then. The FOMC sees three hikes in 2022 and this pacing alone tells you March comes first. Powell.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
First Fed hike in March - it's not about current inflation
09 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzMarch will mark the first Fed rate hike, sooner than the June timing I recently shifted to, and much sooner than the original Q4 call made in November 2020. The timing is being pulled forward because the circumstances.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it
02 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story
25 Oct 2021 - Steven BlitzGlobal supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.
#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales
FOMC: AIT over before it starts?
27 Sep 2021 - Steven BlitzThe equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.
#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy
Reading through US unemployment
05 Jul 2021 - Steven BlitzThis was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
Fed resets the betting table
21 Jun 2021 - Steven BlitzAt Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward
26 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzThe “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery
