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U.S. inflation has to wait
12 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzAny inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.
#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery
The Fed hits a wall
29 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble
Biden's Inaugural to build populism
20 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzNot being Trump is not enough to successfully govern through the next four years, Biden must turn the base that elected him into a base for him. He will have this political challenge in mind as policies are initiated to.
#Populism #US Election #USD
The Fed's Shortened Timeline
12 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzThe vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative
30 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzThe rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.
#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market
August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge
04 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzNot that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.
#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment
Republicans set to party like its 1968
27 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzMarkets focus on comparative tax policies, but this election is about raising fear among the electorate in order to drive voter turnout – fear will determine the outcome. The ability to convert voters is so small.
#US Election
July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done
27 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzThe cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.
#US Economy #Durable Goods
Retail boosted by equities, not $600
17 Aug 2020 - Steven BlitzThe $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.
#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales
