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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.
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Steven Blitz

Steven joined TS Lombard in 2017. His professional experience as economist and portfolio manager began in the late 1970s. It includes econometric modelling at Data Resources Inc., creating interest rate and FX derivatives strategies at Salomon Brothers, managing US and global fixed-income portfolios at OFFITBANK, being global head of fixed-income at Lazard Asset Management and, more recently, as Chief Economist at M Science he developed “big data” to underpin his analysis of the economy, central bank policies, and capital market pricing. Aside from his extensive client-facing work, Steven is a well-known commentator on economic and financial issues, is frequently quoted in the financial press, appearing on TV and radio, and writing guest columns for financial publications.
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Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

16 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

There was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

US inflation to set a new course

14 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

The historic analogue for current inflation does not lie in the 1970s, and the Fed’s on-again off-again response. Inflation in the 1960s eventually strained the Bretton Woods fixed-currency system to the point where it.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Commodities #Stagflation

US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion

28 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

The short-term implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pales next to the longer-run consequences, but the world focuses on the short-term and so too does this note (with a coda on the long-run). First off, Biden.

#Federal Reserve #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine

FOMC Minutes + Retail Sales + Industrial Prod. = 50BP in March

21 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets are 60/40 favouring a 25bp rate hike in March vs 50bp. I was similarly positioned until January retail sales, industrial production, and the FOMC minutes were released. January retail sales more than reversed.

#Federal Reserve #Employment #Recovery

Powell lowers the strike price on the Fed's put

27 Jan 2022 - Steven Blitz

AIT was the promise that the Fed would chase inflation rather than be pre-emptive and here we are, promise kept. Powell now promises the chase to be executed, using a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recovery

US inflation - It's not about the rent

18 Jan 2022 - Steven Blitz

The inflation problem for the US is not rent, but the loss of zero inflation in goods prices as an offset, and this offset is unlikely to return in the coming cycle. One can say current goods price inflation is the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Recovery

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