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Reading through US unemployment
05 Jul 2021 - Steven BlitzThis was a healthy jobs report by most measures, and a read through of the unemployment data indicates the same. All of the increase in unemployment (household survey) came from a rise in people quitting their jobs and.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
Fed resets the betting table
21 Jun 2021 - Steven BlitzAt Wednesday 16th June’s meeting, the FOMC moved closer to my long-held view that the rate hike first comes at the end of 2022, with two hikes completed by the end of 2023. It was not a unanimous decision, but the.
#Federal Reserve #Unemployment #Recovery
Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward
26 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzThe “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery
U.S. inflation has to wait
12 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzAny inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.
#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery
The Fed hits a wall
29 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble
Biden's Inaugural to build populism
20 Jan 2021 - Steven BlitzNot being Trump is not enough to successfully govern through the next four years, Biden must turn the base that elected him into a base for him. He will have this political challenge in mind as policies are initiated to.
#Populism #US Election #USD
The Fed's Shortened Timeline
12 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzThe vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative
30 Sep 2020 - Steven BlitzThe rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.
#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market
