Blogs - equities

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


World slump - weak rebound

26 Mar 2020 - Charles Dumas

Widespread hopes for a V-shaped recovery from the impending recession will probably be dashed. And stock markets are only likely to rebound sharply if they fall a lot further from here – at Tuesday's Close the S&P index.

#Equities #Recession #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #bear market

The bear and fear stalk the world

10 Mar 2020 - Charles Dumas

Global spread of the Covid-19 virus looks likely to cause a worldwide recession and bear market in stocks. Nobody knows how serious the disease is likely to be. But The Brookings Institution’s estimates suggest a.

#Equities #Recession #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

Credit Risk

20 Dec 2019 - Dario Perkins

Back in 2018, we warned about what we called the ‘Buy-side Bubble’. To the extent we could identify vulnerabilities in global markets, the clearest danger involved a powerful search for yield. Investors had naturally.

#Equities #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Stimulus #bbb bulge #global economy #capital markets #buy side bubble

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.  Not only is the global economic outlook becoming more uncertain, but bonds and equities appear to.

#Bond yields #Interest Rates #Equities #Recession #Bond markets #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Bonds

Where we stand - our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield

  - Global macro data to disappoint - Deflationary pressures rebuilding - Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response - EM equities due further consolidation/correction Recent deteriorating.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Trade War #Equities #Emerging Markets #Yield curve inversion #Martin Shenfield

EM correction - 5 triggers to watch out for

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

  EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations. 5 main risks are under-priced: No respite from global slowdown. The Fed’s action on QT shows they.

#Trade War #Equities #China #Emerging Markets #Tariffs #QT #Jon Harrison

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows. Investors have recently favoured US equities with large foreign revenue exposure, as opposed to domestically.

#Federal Reserve #Equities #FOMC #US #US Economy #Steven Blitz

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