Insights - us economy

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Do consumers ever borrow again?

13 Apr 2021 - Steven Blitz

If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment

US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

26 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

The “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

01 Mar 2021 - Shweta Singh

Headline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

The Fed hits a wall

29 Jan 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed may not be out of ammo, but the ammo they have may be futile in curtailing the financial instability that policy is creating. Bitcoin, call-option vigilantes, SPACs and market hype generally were topics the FOMC.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Yield curve #Bubble

The Fed's Shortened Timeline

12 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

The vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing

The Equity Market is now in charge

09 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

Biden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election

Housing supply splurge

06 Nov 2020 - Oliver Brennan

The Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.

#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit

Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

23 Oct 2020 - Marcus Chenevix

Amid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.

#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment

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