Blogs - us economy

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Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

23 Oct 2020 - Marcus Chenevix

Amid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.

#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment

July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done

27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.

#US Economy #Durable Goods

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Covid19 #Stock Market #Bear Market

Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn

29 Apr 2020 - Oliver Brennan

One month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.

#Eurozone #US Economy #Covid19

Roadmap for US inflation

23 Apr 2020 - Steven Blitz

The near-term inflation outlook for the US economy is straightforward – there is none. Demand has collapsed, not supply, and there is no way that inflation will pick up until demand rises at least to meet supply. There.

#Inflation #US Economy

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