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Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...
18 May 2022 - Steven BlitzThe shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
QT's inflationary potential is real
25 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarkets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"
14 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarch CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy
Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative
06 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzToday, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy
February CPI and bank lending starts to rise
16 Mar 2022 - Steven BlitzThere was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy
Supply stops US production, but that's not the stagnation story
25 Oct 2021 - Steven BlitzGlobal supply constraints reversed US production growth in September; excess global supply has stagnated US production. Current constraints will ease, and so too related price hikes, as transportation and production.
#Federal Reserve #US Economy #Retail Sales
FOMC: AIT over before it starts?
27 Sep 2021 - Steven BlitzThe equity market rallied on a hawkish communication because the FOMC’s rate projections mirrored 2017-18, indicating the return to a strong dollar policy (intentional or not). The FOMC has now shown its hand (broadly.
#Federal Reserve #Equities #US Economy
Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward
26 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzThe “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery
Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?
01 Mar 2021 - Shweta SinghHeadline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy
