Blogs - us economy

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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.

The Fed's Shortened Timeline

12 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

The vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing

The Equity Market is now in charge

09 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

Biden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election

Housing supply splurge

06 Nov 2020 - Oliver Brennan

The Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.

#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit

Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

23 Oct 2020 - Marcus Chenevix

Amid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.

#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG

Consumer Confidence Rebound Confounds the Economic Narrative

30 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

The rebound in consumer confidence is just one more indication that the usual narrative from high unemployment fails. To be sure, the confidence levels from the summer still project a loss for Trump (as it would for any.

#Equities #Recession #US Economy #Unemployment #Labour Market

August Unemployment – The Recession Begins to Emerge

04 Sep 2020 - Steven Blitz

Not that one could tell that from the strong headline job gains, but remember the critical aspect of understanding the economy’s dynamics is that there is the mandated shutdown and reopening overwhelming the data – and.

#Recession #US Economy #Unemployment

July Durable Goods - Catch-up is done

27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The cycle of shutdown and reopening impacted the monthly change for durable goods , but with the July increase the sum of these monthly changes YTD is now back on track with year ago levels. From here on out, the pace.

#US Economy #Durable Goods

US-China warpaths converge on tech

14 Aug 2020 - Christopher Granville

It is no accident that the escalation has concentrated on tech, while financial sector measures have remained relatively restrained for now. All the various strands and sources of US reactions to the rise of China now.

#China #Technology #US Economy

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Covid19 #Stock Market #Bear Market

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