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QE Nuclear Options
19 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsAn effective COVID-19 vaccine is great news because it will save lives and means we might still escape from the current economic crisis with minimal long-term scarring. Yet, the global economy faces a difficult winter,.
#Central Banks #Liquidity #International Monetary Fund #Macro Picture
EM: Vaccine rotation impact
17 Nov 2020 - Jon HarrisonThe prospect of a vaccine will drive a rotation to underperforming EM assets at the expense of outperformers. EM exporters will benefit from rising global growth, while growing inflationary pressures will shift the.
#Emerging Markets #Vaccine
BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective
13 Nov 2020 - Christopher Granville“Where might be the catch?” This question about the prospects for the vaccine route to suppressing the pandemic arises naturally from financial markets’ acclamation of last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Before.
#Fiscal Policy #Stimulus #Vaccine
The Fed's Shortened Timeline
12 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzThe vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing
Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts
09 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsCovid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.
#Fiscal Policy #Covid19
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
Emerging Markets in 6 Charts
09 Nov 2020 - Jon HarrisonThe outcome of the US election is important for EM economies, but domestic policy challenges in EM themselves will continue to dominate. Secular trends will remain in place, including: US-China tensions, decline of.
#Trade War #Emerging Markets #Fiscal Policy
Long covid
06 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.
#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19
Housing supply splurge
06 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanThe Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.
#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit
Perma-frosts and fiery endgames
06 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bond-equity correlation has gone mainstream in 2020, thanks in part to what happened in March when yields spiked even as equities crumbled (i.e. there was a POSITIVE correlation in returns). While this was.
#Central Banks #Equities #Bond markets
