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China gas slowdown - why is it happening?

01 Nov 2019 - Stephen O'Sullivan

China’s dramatic growth in gas demand in 2017 and 2018, surpassing all expectations, may be coming to an end, with widespread implications for the global gas market and a number of energy companies around the world.

#Energy #Stephen O'Sullivan #China gas #Coal #Gas market #LNG

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas/Steven Blitz

As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Global Fractures #Monetary Policy #Trade War #Bond yields #ECB #Inflation #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #Euro Crisis #Fiscal Policy

Draghi: Veni, vidi, QE, finit

24 Oct 2019 - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh assesses how Mario Draghi has left ECB bank policy and concludes that Christine Lagarde will have very few policy options available. “Mario Draghi has ended his term as the ECB President, paving the way for.

#ECB #TLTRO #Draghi #Lagarde #QE #Shweta Singh

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #QE #Liquidity #Balance Sheet #Recession #Steven Blitz #Debt

Boris: The Key Question

23 Jul 2019 - Constantine Fraser

There’s an old joke about a drunk looking for his keys under a streetlamp: he’d actually lost them in the park across the road, he eventually reveals to a helpful policeman, “but the light’s much better over here”. The.

#Brexit #Boris Johnson #United Kingdom #Constantine Fraser

Central Bank Dethroning

01 Jul 2019 - Christopher Granville

  In Global Political Drivers published on 1st July, Christopher Granville offers a thought-leadership piece on the end of the era of DM central bank independence. He writes: It was only a matter of time before central.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #ECB #Bank Of England #Christopher Granville

How big is the Draghi bazooka?

25 Jun 2019 - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh provides analysis of Mario Draghi’s speech at Sintra on 18t June. A meaningful fiscal stimulus in the Eurozone, and especially in Germany, continues to be elusive. We have long argued that in the absence of.

#Monetary Policy #ECB #Inflation #Draghi #QE #Eurozone #Shweta Singh

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.  Not only is the global economic outlook becoming more uncertain, but bonds and equities appear to.

#Bond yields #Interest Rates #Equities #Recession #Bond markets #Yield curve #Dario Perkins #Bonds

China's trade is shifting fast

10 Jun 2019 - Charles Dumas

Charles Dumas and Rory Green assess the decline in trade volumes. They support a long-running theme, specifically that trade war is shifting supply chains and accelerating the world splitting into trade blocs. Signs of.

#Trade War #ASEAN #China #Tariffs #Charles Dumas #Rory Green

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

28 May 2019 - Jon Harrison

In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.   This stage of the trade war is.

#Trade War #China #Emerging Markets #Technology #Tariffs #Jon Harrison



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