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Housing supply splurge
06 Nov 2020 - Oliver BrennanThe Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.
#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit
Perma-frosts and fiery endgames
06 Nov 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bond-equity correlation has gone mainstream in 2020, thanks in part to what happened in March when yields spiked even as equities crumbled (i.e. there was a POSITIVE correlation in returns). While this was.
#Central Banks #Equities #Bond markets
Ranking FX risk
28 Oct 2020 - Oliver BrennanCurrencies move up or down because of a cross-border supply/demand imbalance. Unfortunately, BoP data are published with a long lag. So our scoreboard uses higher-frequency heuristics (all back-tested to identify signal.
#USD #GBP #Fixed Income #Portfolio Management
Digital RMB - a new type of stimulus
23 Oct 2020 - Rory GreenBoth the Fed and the ECB have grabbed headlines recently with talk of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). But of all CBDC projects currently in the works, it is the one by the People’s Bank of China that is nearest.
#China #Stimulus #People's Bank of China #Digital RMB #Cryptocurrency
Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come
23 Oct 2020 - Marcus ChenevixAmid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with.
#Trade War #Technology #US Economy #Energy #US Election #ESG
Brexit: Sticking to our "inevitable FTA" view
19 Oct 2020 - Christopher GranvilleNeither the FX market nor most commentators are taking at face value Boris Johnson’s statement on October 16th that “trade talks [with the EU] are over”. While I would definitely agree with this sceptical view of what.
#Eurozone #Brexit #United Kingdom #Tariffs #US Election #Asset Allocation #FX Market
Portfolios in the post-Covid world
16 Oct 2020 - Andrea CicioneIf the Global Financial Crisis ushered in the era of zero yields, the Covid pandemic has made it a semi-permanent affair. We have looked at how lower bond returns have changed asset allocation choices faced by.
#Equities #Stock Market #Asset Allocation #Gold #Commodities #Dividend Aristocrats
K-runch Time
12 Oct 2020 - Dario PerkinsData for other countries confirms the tendency for inequality to widen during recessions, though the picture is more mixed than the US experience – because it depends, in part, on the policy response. UK disparities,.
#Monetary Policy #Fiscal Policy #Inequality #K Recovery
China outperformance to continue
08 Oct 2020 - Lawrence BrainardEquites are volatile globally but China is a big outperformer. Looking at rising equity volatilities, we conclude that markets are not ignoring downside risks; the point is that right now, the upside potential and.
#Equities #China #Emerging Markets #MSCI
UK economy at inflection point
07 Oct 2020 - Konstantinos VenetisChancellor Rishi Sunak has vowed to “balance the books”, yet pressure to keep the fiscal taps loose is unlikely to let up anytime soon. The government’s backstops have put a floor under the economy, but as the mid-year.
#Bank Of England #United Kingdom #Labour Market
