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All eyes on oil as the commodity rally narrows
13 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisCommodity prices continue to trend higher but the breadth of the rally has narrowed: industrial metals have corrected lower in 2022 Q2, leaving energy prices to pull the cart. Where do we go from here? The case for a.
#Federal Reserve #OPEC #Commodities #Oil
A recession to tame inflation?
19 May 2022 - Dario PerkinsThere is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.
#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession
Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...
18 May 2022 - Steven BlitzThe shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
The cycle starts to bite
11 May 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets
QT's inflationary potential is real
25 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarkets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
Get ready for the super-charging of US-China decoupling
21 Apr 2022 - Grace FanNearly two months into the Russia-Ukraine war, US policymakers – troubled by Beijing’s pro-Kremlin rhetoric – are forging ahead with robust plans to accelerate US-China decoupling. Of the five major decoupling pathways.
#Equities #China #Technology #Decarbonomics
US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"
14 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarch CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy
Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative
06 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzToday, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy
YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’
29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisPronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.
#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market
February CPI and bank lending starts to rise
16 Mar 2022 - Steven BlitzThere was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy
