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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.
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QE Nuclear Options

19 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

An effective COVID-19 vaccine is great news because it will save lives and means we might still escape from the current economic crisis with minimal long-term scarring. Yet, the global economy faces a difficult winter,.

#Central Banks #Liquidity #International Monetary Fund #Macro Picture

EM: Vaccine rotation impact

17 Nov 2020 - Jon Harrison

The prospect of a vaccine will drive a rotation to underperforming EM assets at the expense of outperformers. EM exporters will benefit from rising global growth, while growing inflationary pressures will shift the.

#Emerging Markets #Vaccine

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective

13 Nov 2020 - Christopher Granville

“Where might be the catch?” This question about the prospects for the vaccine route to suppressing the pandemic arises naturally from financial markets’ acclamation of last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Before.

#Fiscal Policy #Stimulus #Vaccine

The Fed's Shortened Timeline

12 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

The vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

The Equity Market is now in charge

09 Nov 2020 - Steven Blitz

Biden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election

Emerging Markets in 6 Charts

09 Nov 2020 - Jon Harrison

The outcome of the US election is important for EM economies, but domestic policy challenges in EM themselves will continue to dominate. Secular trends will remain in place, including: US-China tensions, decline of.

#Trade War #Emerging Markets #Fiscal Policy

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Housing supply splurge

06 Nov 2020 - Oliver Brennan

The Covid crisis has triggered secular shifts in tech, but in housing too? Whether Growth really is the new Value or whether we are in the early stages of a tech bubble, secular shifts in use of technology since the.

#Recession #US Economy #US Housing #Credit

Perma-frosts and fiery endgames

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bond-equity correlation has gone mainstream in 2020, thanks in part to what happened in March when yields spiked even as equities crumbled (i.e. there was a POSITIVE correlation in returns). While this was.

#Central Banks #Equities #Bond markets

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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