Blogs

Our charts showcase our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


Road to inflation

27 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

Inflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Dario Perkins #coronavirus #unemployment

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US #US Economy #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #unemployment #US election #deficit

Lessons from the lockdown

16 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

For months, investors have been “looking through” macro data and focusing on the prospects for a global recovery, with aggressive policy support – both monetary and fiscal – bolstering their confidence. With the global.

#Dario Perkins #coronavirus

Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?

14 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Equity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet #Steven Blitz

Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

09 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

With every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.

#Eurozone #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus

Big Oil and the Energy Transition: Out of their comfort zone?

30 Jun 2020 - Stephen O'Sullivan

The Energy Transition is upon us and one of the key challenges facing today’s oil and gas companies is: how do they address the fundamental changes that are needed in their business to adapt to, take part in and thrive.

#Stephen O'Sullivan #oil #energy transition #shell #IEA #gas #bp

Politics of unemployment to reign

26 Jun 2020 - Steven Blitz

As the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #bear market #unemployment #US election #economic outlook

Investors can’t rely on central banks

24 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #policymaker #macro economy #investors

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market

COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle

16 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

COVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Dario Perkins #Bonds #coronavirus

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