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YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’

29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Pronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.

#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market

February CPI and bank lending starts to rise

16 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

There was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

US inflation to set a new course

14 Mar 2022 - Steven Blitz

The historic analogue for current inflation does not lie in the 1970s, and the Fed’s on-again off-again response. Inflation in the 1960s eventually strained the Bretton Woods fixed-currency system to the point where it.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Commodities #Stagflation

Don't bet on a soft landing

10 Mar 2022 - Dario Perkins

Every economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion

28 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

The short-term implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pales next to the longer-run consequences, but the world focuses on the short-term and so too does this note (with a coda on the long-run). First off, Biden.

#Federal Reserve #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war: Initial market take

25 Feb 2022 - Andrea Cicione

Markets normally react negatively to geopolitical risks but soon lose interest. The North Korea crisis of 2017-18 is a prime example of this: since it’s impossible to put a price on a nuclear war, markets simply decided.

#Federal Reserve #Oil & Gas #Oil Price #Russia #Commodities #Ukraine #War

FOMC Minutes + Retail Sales + Industrial Prod. = 50BP in March

21 Feb 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets are 60/40 favouring a 25bp rate hike in March vs 50bp. I was similarly positioned until January retail sales, industrial production, and the FOMC minutes were released. January retail sales more than reversed.

#Federal Reserve #Employment #Recovery

"Late cycle" comes early

18 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Whether one views the last couple of years as a break in the business cycle or the beginning of a new cycle, the bigger point is this has been a cycle on steroids: in terms of its amplitude, the speed of maturity and.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Commodities

Short shortages - in charts

10 Feb 2022 - Rory Green

The pandemic demand shift and supply mismatch catalysed a surge in global goods inflation. The supply side is improving to meet the new Covid-19 demand reality just as DM consumers transition to services spending..

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Semiconductors

Hawkish Bank of England plays ‘catch-up’ with the cycle

04 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

A 25bp hike was already in the price ahead of February’s meeting and the MPC did not disappoint, paving the way for ‘passive QT’ as the policy rate has now reached the 0.50% threshold for allowing maturing gilts to roll.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bank Of England

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