Insights

Our charts and insights showcase our thought-leadership on key issues in macro research, geopolitical investment and investment strategy. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


FOMC commits to recession - are they late on this too?

16 Jun 2022 - Steven Blitz

Powell told us policy is going to create a recession, but soft peddled it enough to leave markets to figure that out for themselves. After all, the FOMC is still very much in the clench of a dance between its objective.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

All eyes on oil as the commodity rally narrows

13 Jun 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Commodity prices continue to trend higher but the breadth of the rally has narrowed: industrial metals have corrected lower in 2022 Q2, leaving energy prices to pull the cart. Where do we go from here? The case for a.

#Federal Reserve #OPEC #Commodities #Oil

A recession to tame inflation?

19 May 2022 - Dario Perkins

There is currently a big debate about whether central banks will need to generate a recession in order to force inflation lower. For the doves, such action is not necessary – because the “cure for high prices is high.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession

Fed funds target rate is >4%, if...

18 May 2022 - Steven Blitz

The shock of 2021, friction in global sourcing of capital and labour, brings back the output gap as a determinant of inflation and thus returns some slope to the Phillips Curve. This makes the “is inflation peaking”.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

The cycle starts to bite

11 May 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

The macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets

QT's inflationary potential is real

25 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Markets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy

Get ready for the super-charging of US-China decoupling

21 Apr 2022 - Grace Fan

Nearly two months into the Russia-Ukraine war, US policymakers – troubled by Beijing’s pro-Kremlin rhetoric – are forging ahead with robust plans to accelerate US-China decoupling. Of the five major decoupling pathways.

#Equities #China #Technology #Decarbonomics

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

14 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

March CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy

Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative

06 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

Today, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy

YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’

29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Pronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.

#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market

VIDEO
Video

Video

View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

READ MORE
TRACK RECORD
Track Record

Track Record

We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

READ MORE
PRESS
Press

Press

To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com .

READ MORE