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Secular turning point in inflation?

12 Mar 2021 - Dario Perkins

These days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

U.S. inflation has to wait

12 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

Any inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.

#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery

ECB Yield Curve Control?

09 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The US bond sell-off last week sent waves through global bond markets causing Euro Area(EA) risk-free and sovereign debt curves to steepen at rapid pace, as investors offloaded long-term paper. ECB officials were fast.

#Eurozone #Yield curve #Fiscal Policy

Oil: new playbook, same old cycle

05 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

We have often made the argument that although the nature of the Covid shock makes this macro cycle unique, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that this remains a cycle. The same is true of the oil market..

#Inflation #OPEC #Commodities #Oil

EU recovery fund – which sectors get the funds?

03 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The €750bn Next Generation EU Fund (NGEU, aka EU Recovery Fund) has been launched to prevent the asymmetric impact of the pandemic from exacerbating existing growth divergence across member states and to lift long-term.

#Eurozone #Fiscal Policy

Households $1.6tn in “excess” savings, inflation to take off?

01 Mar 2021 - Shweta Singh

Headline figures overestimate the “excess” savings that households have accumulated since the outbreak of the pandemic. To be sure, the personal saving rate will fall as consumers spend more of their disposable income.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy

Commodity Supercycle now on? Potential is there

01 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos Venetis

There are two questions that the current debate on the commodity cycle tends to conflate. Does the rally that kicked off in spring 2020 have further to go? And are we in the early stages of a so-called “supercycle”,.

#Federal Reserve #Stimulus #Commodities #Oil

The undead fuel

25 Feb 2021 - Marcus Chenevix

The disappearance of coal from the global energy mix follows a set pattern: precipitate decline from the peak leads not to swift terminal extinction but, for a prolonged interim, a zombified plateau. After good spells.

#Energy #Decarbonomics #Climate Change

Chip Famine and the new OPEC

19 Feb 2021 - Rory Green

Surging demand for semiconductors is putting pressure on vehicle production and US-China relations. Taiwan and Korea are the prime beneficiaries, insatiable demand for their exports and rising prices adds conviction to.

#Trade War #China #Technology #OPEC #Semiconductors #Geopolitics

Biden's first climate moves and GM blaze the trail

16 Feb 2021 - Grace Fan

With his first string of executive orders, Biden has made clear that climate policy is core to his administration, as we anticipated. This sets the stage not only for coordinated global climate action but also concrete.

#Decarbonomics #Climate Change

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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