Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?
26 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.
#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus
Fed policy pivots to the 10 year
22 May 2020 - Steven BlitzOnce the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.
#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve #Steven Blitz
The war on deflation
15 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus
A bad week for Big Oil... with worse to come?
07 May 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanThe last week was quieter in the oil markets as far as prices were concerned and there was a steady drift upwards on the back of some economies partially reopening. It was, however, reporting week for the oil companies.
#Stephen O'Sullivan #Oil & Gas #OPEC #oil price #Russia
The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?
01 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsWatching financial markets, it is tempting to think the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over. Equity values have bounced and credit spreads have narrowed, even as the oil market continues to suffer alarming strains..
#Monetary Policy #Recession #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #bull market
Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn
29 Apr 2020 - Oliver BrennanOne month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.
#Eurozone #US #coronavirus #Oliver Brennan
Emerging Markets: The coming growth collapse
28 Apr 2020 - Jon HarrisonSome EM lockdowns are starting to ease. Many EM economies are now 3-4 weeks into restrictive measures and progress is seemingly being made on flattening the curve. Thoughts are turning to the exit strategy. India and.
#Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #coronavirus
After oil at -$40, what next?
27 Apr 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanLast Monday we warned that oil prices could turn negative. That evening they did just that, with the main US domestic grade WTI trading as low as -$40/bbl for the May contract (sellers were paying buyers to take the.
#Stephen O'Sullivan #OPEC #oil price #Russia #oil
Roadmap for US inflation
23 Apr 2020 - Steven BlitzThe near-term inflation outlook for the US economy is straightforward – there is none. Demand has collapsed, not supply, and there is no way that inflation will pick up until demand rises at least to meet supply. There.
#Inflation #US #Steven Blitz #Dario Perkins
Fire starter?
21 Apr 2020 - Dario PerkinsPolicymakers all over the world have responded forcefully to COVID-19, using war-time analogies to justify massive expansions in their budget deficits. With governments adding up to 20% pts of GDP to their national.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Dario Perkins #Debt #coronavirus
