Road to inflation
27 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsInflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.
#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Dario Perkins #coronavirus #unemployment
Last dance for US fiscal spending
23 Jul 2020 - Steven BlitzRepublican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.
#US #US Economy #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #unemployment #US election #deficit
Lessons from the lockdown
16 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsFor months, investors have been “looking through” macro data and focusing on the prospects for a global recovery, with aggressive policy support – both monetary and fiscal – bolstering their confidence. With the global.
#Dario Perkins #coronavirus
Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?
14 Jul 2020 - Steven BlitzEquity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet #Steven Blitz
Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?
09 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsWith every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.
#Eurozone #Recession #Dario Perkins #coronavirus
Big Oil and the Energy Transition: Out of their comfort zone?
30 Jun 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanThe Energy Transition is upon us and one of the key challenges facing today’s oil and gas companies is: how do they address the fundamental changes that are needed in their business to adapt to, take part in and thrive.
#Stephen O'Sullivan #oil #energy transition #shell #IEA #gas #bp
Politics of unemployment to reign
26 Jun 2020 - Steven BlitzAs the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..
#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Steven Blitz #Fiscal Policy #bear market #unemployment #US election #economic outlook
Investors can’t rely on central banks
24 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Dario Perkins #Fiscal Policy #coronavirus #bear market #policymaker #macro economy #investors
Why we remain bears
23 Jun 2020 - Charles DumasThis blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.
#US Economy #Steven Blitz #Charles Dumas #coronavirus #stock market #bear market
COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle
16 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsCOVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Dario Perkins #Bonds #coronavirus
