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QT's inflationary potential is real
25 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarkets will not truly consider the Fed serious about inflation until policy stresses markets by pulling up real yields to some critical level. The Fed turns serious once they recognize that deteriorating global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #US Economy
Get ready for the super-charging of US-China decoupling
21 Apr 2022 - Grace FanNearly two months into the Russia-Ukraine war, US policymakers – troubled by Beijing’s pro-Kremlin rhetoric – are forging ahead with robust plans to accelerate US-China decoupling. Of the five major decoupling pathways.
#Equities #China #Technology #Decarbonomics
US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"
14 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzMarch CPI data came in as expected, driven up by energy and a smattering of services – but goods prices ex food and energy fell 0.4% m/m, and this is key. The “secret sauce” of low core inflation for a generation has.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #US Economy
Is the US recession inevitable? Always, but not when real rates are negative
06 Apr 2022 - Steven BlitzToday, in the middle of this cycle, the straight path is lost -- the Fed is hoping for relief from abroad because it fears the chase that inevitably leads to lost jobs and wealth. Seeing the Fed play for time, markets.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Recession #US Economy
YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’
29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisPronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.
#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market
February CPI and bank lending starts to rise
16 Mar 2022 - Steven BlitzThere was little in the Feb CPI report to give the Fed comfort, and the rise in bank lending should be a cause for concern. The “good news” in the Feb CPI report was some deceleration in inflation excluding food,.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy
US inflation to set a new course
14 Mar 2022 - Steven BlitzThe historic analogue for current inflation does not lie in the 1970s, and the Fed’s on-again off-again response. Inflation in the 1960s eventually strained the Bretton Woods fixed-currency system to the point where it.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Commodities #Stagflation
Don't bet on a soft landing
10 Mar 2022 - Dario PerkinsEvery economist wants to be famous for some great idea they had or to have their name forever linked to an original economic concept or unique thought. We have Keynesian demand-management, Friedman’s monetarism,.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Eurozone #Recession
US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion
28 Feb 2022 - Steven BlitzThe short-term implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pales next to the longer-run consequences, but the world focuses on the short-term and so too does this note (with a coda on the long-run). First off, Biden.
#Federal Reserve #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine war: Initial market take
25 Feb 2022 - Andrea CicioneMarkets normally react negatively to geopolitical risks but soon lose interest. The North Korea crisis of 2017-18 is a prime example of this: since it’s impossible to put a price on a nuclear war, markets simply decided.
#Federal Reserve #Oil & Gas #Oil Price #Russia #Commodities #Ukraine #War
