Blogs - covid19

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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.

Double-Dip Recession on the way?

24 Nov 2020 - Davide Oneglia

A virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.

#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?

01 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.

#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Looking through Korea’s second wave

28 Aug 2020 - Rory Green

Second wave does not change our positive Korean economy, equity, or FX position. Since April, we picked Korea as a relative outperformer due to three core factors: Virus containment success Tech heavy exports profiting.

#Covid19 #South Korea

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

17 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.

#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Road to inflation

27 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

Inflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment

Lessons from the lockdown

16 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

For months, investors have been “looking through” macro data and focusing on the prospects for a global recovery, with aggressive policy support – both monetary and fiscal – bolstering their confidence. With the global.

#Covid19

Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

09 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

With every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.

#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19

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