Insights - covid19

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Delta blues

27 Aug 2021 - Oliver Brennan

The US state of Mississippi is in the midst of its worst wave of Covid infections. Ditto Arkansas and Louisiana. But it’s not just the Mississippi Delta feeling the Delta blues. Cases in Florida are second only to.

#China #Covid19 #Recovery #Delta variant

What is normal anyway? Our clients respond

22 Jan 2021 - Oliver Brennan

At our MacroFest virtual event on 12th and 13th January, we discussed the outlook for global growth, global markets, energy, deglobalization and, of course, COVID-19, among many other topics. As a follow-up to the.

#Inflation #Eurozone #Emerging Markets #Covid19 #Currencies #USD #Vaccine

The 2020 ABC

28 Dec 2020 - Oliver Brennan

There are two types of economist: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. That’s why our final blog of the year usually gives “anti-forecasts” – outlandish things that definitely won’t happen. But.

#Brexit #2020 outlook #Covid19 #Recovery Fund #K Recovery #Quantitative Easing #Modern Monetary Theory

Double-Dip Recession on the way?

24 Nov 2020 - Davide Oneglia

A virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the.

#Eurozone #GDP #Recession #Covid19

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?

01 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.

#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Looking through Korea’s second wave

28 Aug 2020 - Rory Green

Second wave does not change our positive Korean economy, equity, or FX position. Since April, we picked Korea as a relative outperformer due to three core factors: Virus containment success Tech heavy exports profiting.

#Covid19 #South Korea

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

17 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.

#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

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