Blogs - covid19

Our charts and blogs showcase our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. Visit our research services and request a trial to find out more.


The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

Can the world rebound from the Covid-19 recession?

01 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

The COVID-19 economic collapse was unlike anything we have seen before. This was not your classic recession. Yet it was actually easy to forecast. Given the nature of the shock – especially lockdowns and social.

#Recession #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Looking through Korea’s second wave

28 Aug 2020 - Rory Green

Second wave does not change our positive Korean economy, equity, or FX position. Since April, we picked Korea as a relative outperformer due to three core factors: Virus containment success Tech heavy exports profiting.

#Covid19 #South Korea

Retail boosted by equities, not $600

17 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine. More critical to the revival in retail spending is the recovery in.

#Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment #Retail Sales

Road to inflation

27 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

Inflation remains an important theme for our clients. Perhaps this reflects supreme confidence in the policies governments and central banks have introduced to support their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. With.

#Central Banks #Inflation #Equities #Covid19 #Unemployment

Lessons from the lockdown

16 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

For months, investors have been “looking through” macro data and focusing on the prospects for a global recovery, with aggressive policy support – both monetary and fiscal – bolstering their confidence. With the global.

#Covid19

Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?

09 Jul 2020 - Dario Perkins

With every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.

#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19

Investors can’t rely on central banks

24 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market

Why we remain bears

23 Jun 2020 - Charles Dumas

This blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.

#US Economy #Covid19 #Stock Market #Bear Market

COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle

16 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

COVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #Covid19

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