Blogs - fiscal policy

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BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective

13 Nov 2020 - Christopher Granville

“Where might be the catch?” This question about the prospects for the vaccine route to suppressing the pandemic arises naturally from financial markets’ acclamation of last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Before.

#Fiscal Policy #Stimulus #Vaccine

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Emerging Markets in 6 Charts

09 Nov 2020 - Jon Harrison

The outcome of the US election is important for EM economies, but domestic policy challenges in EM themselves will continue to dominate. Secular trends will remain in place, including: US-China tensions, decline of.

#Trade War #Emerging Markets #Fiscal Policy

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

K-runch Time

12 Oct 2020 - Dario Perkins

Data for other countries confirms the tendency for inequality to widen during recessions, though the picture is more mixed than the US experience – because it depends, in part, on the policy response. UK disparities,.

#Monetary Policy #Fiscal Policy #Inequality #K Recovery

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit

Politics of unemployment to reign

26 Jun 2020 - Steven Blitz

As the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..

#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Fiscal Policy #Bear Market #Unemployment #US Election

Investors can’t rely on central banks

24 Jun 2020 - Dario Perkins

The bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market

Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?

26 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.

#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

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