Insights - fiscal policy

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US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward

26 Mar 2021 - Steven Blitz

The “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.

#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery

ECB Yield Curve Control?

09 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The US bond sell-off last week sent waves through global bond markets causing Euro Area(EA) risk-free and sovereign debt curves to steepen at rapid pace, as investors offloaded long-term paper. ECB officials were fast.

#Eurozone #Yield curve #Fiscal Policy

EU recovery fund – which sectors get the funds?

03 Mar 2021 - Davide Oneglia

The €750bn Next Generation EU Fund (NGEU, aka EU Recovery Fund) has been launched to prevent the asymmetric impact of the pandemic from exacerbating existing growth divergence across member states and to lift long-term.

#Eurozone #Fiscal Policy

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine announcement in a financial market perspective

13 Nov 2020 - Christopher Granville

“Where might be the catch?” This question about the prospects for the vaccine route to suppressing the pandemic arises naturally from financial markets’ acclamation of last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Before.

#Fiscal Policy #Stimulus #Vaccine

Covid Scarring. Impact in 12 charts

09 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal.

#Fiscal Policy #Covid19

Emerging Markets in 6 Charts

09 Nov 2020 - Jon Harrison

The outcome of the US election is important for EM economies, but domestic policy challenges in EM themselves will continue to dominate. Secular trends will remain in place, including: US-China tensions, decline of.

#Trade War #Emerging Markets #Fiscal Policy

Long covid

06 Nov 2020 - Dario Perkins

The authorities’ attempt to reopen their economies has caused a sharp acceleration in COVID cases across Europe and the US, the (entirely predictable) “second wave” of the pandemic. While the health authorities are.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19

K-runch Time

12 Oct 2020 - Dario Perkins

Data for other countries confirms the tendency for inequality to widen during recessions, though the picture is more mixed than the US experience – because it depends, in part, on the policy response. UK disparities,.

#Monetary Policy #Fiscal Policy #Inequality #K Recovery

The Covid-19 recession: L comes after K?

17 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

It is a cliché to say everyone’s experience of the COVID-19 recession has been different, but no sell-side economist ever shies away from using cliché to construct a narrative. For some people – especially those on the.

#Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Unemployment #Macro Picture

Last dance for US fiscal spending

23 Jul 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republican Senate Leader McConnell waited for this last minute to begin negotiating this“stimulus” package because he knew it would limit the bill’s scope. No side wants to see critical aspects of the CARES Act just.

#US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Unemployment #US Election #Deficit

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