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US growth and the Fed - after the Russian invasion
28 Feb 2022 - Steven BlitzThe short-term implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pales next to the longer-run consequences, but the world focuses on the short-term and so too does this note (with a coda on the long-run). First off, Biden.
#Federal Reserve #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine war: Initial market take
25 Feb 2022 - Andrea CicioneMarkets normally react negatively to geopolitical risks but soon lose interest. The North Korea crisis of 2017-18 is a prime example of this: since it’s impossible to put a price on a nuclear war, markets simply decided.
#Federal Reserve #Oil & Gas #Oil Price #Russia #Commodities #Ukraine #War
FOMC Minutes + Retail Sales + Industrial Prod. = 50BP in March
21 Feb 2022 - Steven BlitzMarkets are 60/40 favouring a 25bp rate hike in March vs 50bp. I was similarly positioned until January retail sales, industrial production, and the FOMC minutes were released. January retail sales more than reversed.
#Federal Reserve #Employment #Recovery
"Late cycle" comes early
18 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisWhether one views the last couple of years as a break in the business cycle or the beginning of a new cycle, the bigger point is this has been a cycle on steroids: in terms of its amplitude, the speed of maturity and.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Commodities
Powell lowers the strike price on the Fed's put
27 Jan 2022 - Steven BlitzAIT was the promise that the Fed would chase inflation rather than be pre-emptive and here we are, promise kept. Powell now promises the chase to be executed, using a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recovery
US inflation - It's not about the rent
18 Jan 2022 - Steven BlitzThe inflation problem for the US is not rent, but the loss of zero inflation in goods prices as an offset, and this offset is unlikely to return in the coming cycle. One can say current goods price inflation is the.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Recovery
‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now
13 Jan 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisTime to play catch-up. Policymakers have finally dropped the “transitory” narrative and are playing catch-up, rushing to normalize monetary settings closer in line with last year’s sharp positive macro turnaround. While.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bond markets
Powell underplays hawkish turn
17 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzThe march to a March hike is on, assuming, of course, no great downward swerve in growth and/or inflation between now and then. The FOMC sees three hikes in 2022 and this pacing alone tells you March comes first. Powell.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
First Fed hike in March - it's not about current inflation
09 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzMarch will mark the first Fed rate hike, sooner than the June timing I recently shifted to, and much sooner than the original Q4 call made in November 2020. The timing is being pulled forward because the circumstances.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it
02 Dec 2021 - Steven BlitzThe Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation
