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Economists’ guide to Christmas (redux)
23 Dec 2020 - Dario PerkinsThis was something we published back in 2013 – the Economists’ guide to Christmas. But we made a serious omission, by leaving out Modern Monetary Theory. So here’s an update, incl. MMT: ‘If you put two economists in a.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #European Central Bank #Bank Of England #Bank of Japan #Modern Monetary Theory
The Fed's Shortened Timeline
12 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzThe vaccine arrives early 2021, so our growth forecast accelerates as a result, beginning in 2021 Q3, and the timeline for when the Fed first “tightens” shortens. It may seem odd to relay this view just when the.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #US Economy #Vaccine #Quantitative Easing
The Equity Market is now in charge
09 Nov 2020 - Steven BlitzBiden won, Trump lost, but lots of Republicans also won, and the October employment data help explain why – the population does not see the economy in crisis. The ongoing recovery in the labour market (906,000 private.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #US Economy #US Election
Central Banks are changing
30 Sep 2020 - Dario PerkinsOnce upon a time, it was my job to advise the UK government on the Bank of England’s policy remit, which the Chancellor has the option of adjusting every year. I’m sure whoever is in that role today is spending much of.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #European Central Bank #Inflation
If the Fed buys stocks? Then sell
05 Aug 2020 - Charles DumasOctober 1929 – the Wall Street Crash is gathering frightening momentum. Several leading Wall Street bankers get together and decide to backstop the stock market, they come out swinging, placing a bid to purchase a large.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #Stock Market
Will Coronavirus collapse small banks?
14 Jul 2020 - Steven BlitzEquity market participants are putting banks in the performance penalty box, likely figuring on stressed balance sheets becoming problematic later this year. The equity market has it right, in our view. Comparing the.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Equities #Balance Sheet
Politics of unemployment to reign
26 Jun 2020 - Steven BlitzAs the economy reopens, the revealed recessionary environment will reflect the imbalance of the expansion just ended – a surplus of service-related workers with no obvious direction in which to go to find re-employment..
#Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Fiscal Policy #Bear Market #Unemployment #US Election
Investors can’t rely on central banks
24 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market
COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle
16 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsCOVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #Covid19
Fed policy pivots to the 10 year
22 May 2020 - Steven BlitzOnce the Fed started buying mass sums to support markets, we began writing that policy was locked into using the balance sheet to manage rates and the yield curve. Reading the April FOMC minutes, we see that this has.
#Federal Reserve #Balance Sheet #FOMC #Yield curve
