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The cycle starts to bite
11 May 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisThe macro story of 2022 is “higher-for-longer inflation” that is forcing central bankers across the major DMs, led by the Fed, to tighten into slowing growth. Going into this year, a slew of high-frequency indicators.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #China #Bond markets
YEN MOVES AND THE BOJ ‘TAPER’
29 Mar 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisPronounced widening in JGB interest rate differentials, particularly versus US Treasuries, catalysed accelerated yen depreciation in March. Chances are that we are getting closer to a “taper” of Japanese monetary.
#Monetary Policy #Bond markets #Bank of Japan #FX Market
"Late cycle" comes early
18 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisWhether one views the last couple of years as a break in the business cycle or the beginning of a new cycle, the bigger point is this has been a cycle on steroids: in terms of its amplitude, the speed of maturity and.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Commodities
Hawkish Bank of England plays ‘catch-up’ with the cycle
04 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisA 25bp hike was already in the price ahead of February’s meeting and the MPC did not disappoint, paving the way for ‘passive QT’ as the policy rate has now reached the 0.50% threshold for allowing maturing gilts to roll.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bank Of England
‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now
13 Jan 2022 - Konstantinos VenetisTime to play catch-up. Policymakers have finally dropped the “transitory” narrative and are playing catch-up, rushing to normalize monetary settings closer in line with last year’s sharp positive macro turnaround. While.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bond markets
When the V starts to fade
17 Sep 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe looming threat to the global growth outlook posed by the Delta variant should not be conflated with what is a natural cyclical downshift in output growth – something that was always on the cards following the.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Equities #Stock Market #Volatility
The Bank of England’s monetary ‘put’ need not imply static policy
28 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisJune’s MPC meeting delivered no surprises, but the debate within the Committee is becoming more nuanced. A closer look at the minutes reveals early signs of a rift between 1) those members on alert for imminent signs of.
#Inflation #Interest Rates #Bank Of England #Quantitative Easing
Bonds are saying the market needs a new catalyst
15 Jun 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThe second quarter of 2021 is set to mark the peak in quarterly GDP growth for most of the major economies, which will give way to a still solid but slower pace of expansion as the transition from an early to a.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets #Recovery
Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit
11 May 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThis economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets
Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle
30 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisIt has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather.
#Federal Reserve #Commodities #Oil
