Insights - inflation

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Short shortages - in charts

10 Feb 2022 - Rory Green

The pandemic demand shift and supply mismatch catalysed a surge in global goods inflation. The supply side is improving to meet the new Covid-19 demand reality just as DM consumers transition to services spending..

#Central Banks #Inflation #Eurozone #Fiscal Policy #Semiconductors

Hawkish Bank of England plays ‘catch-up’ with the cycle

04 Feb 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

A 25bp hike was already in the price ahead of February’s meeting and the MPC did not disappoint, paving the way for ‘passive QT’ as the policy rate has now reached the 0.50% threshold for allowing maturing gilts to roll.

#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bank Of England

Powell lowers the strike price on the Fed's put

27 Jan 2022 - Steven Blitz

AIT was the promise that the Fed would chase inflation rather than be pre-emptive and here we are, promise kept. Powell now promises the chase to be executed, using a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet.

#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recovery

US inflation - It's not about the rent

18 Jan 2022 - Steven Blitz

The inflation problem for the US is not rent, but the loss of zero inflation in goods prices as an offset, and this offset is unlikely to return in the coming cycle. One can say current goods price inflation is the.

#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Recovery

Don't extrapolate from this fake business cycle

13 Jan 2022 - Dario Perkins

Edgar Fiedler, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford administrations, famously joked: “Ask five economists a question and you'll get five different answers – six, if one.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Recovery

‘Undecided’ bond market has made up its mind – at least for now

13 Jan 2022 - Konstantinos Venetis

Time to play catch-up. Policymakers have finally dropped the “transitory” narrative and are playing catch-up, rushing to normalize monetary settings closer in line with last year’s sharp positive macro turnaround. While.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Bond markets

Powell underplays hawkish turn

17 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

The march to a March hike is on, assuming, of course, no great downward swerve in growth and/or inflation between now and then. The FOMC sees three hikes in 2022 and this pacing alone tells you March comes first. Powell.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

First Fed hike in March - it's not about current inflation

09 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

March will mark the first Fed rate hike, sooner than the June timing I recently shifted to, and much sooner than the original Q4 call made in November 2020. The timing is being pulled forward because the circumstances.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Fed's inflation problem is wages in 2022, and no workable answer for it

02 Dec 2021 - Steven Blitz

The Fed’s problem is that current price hikes from shortages of goods and labour will pass, but the coming increase in wages will not. Because the conduit of monetary policy runs through the dollar and the equity.

#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Inflation

Hawkish markets to force global policy response?

04 Nov 2021 - Dario Perkins

A simple narrative is taking over financial markets, especially the short end of the yield curve, where the idea that central banks are “behind the curve” is rapidly gaining traction. Initially, it was just the emerging.

#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation

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