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Emerging Markets: The coming growth collapse
28 Apr 2020 - Jon HarrisonSome EM lockdowns are starting to ease. Many EM economies are now 3-4 weeks into restrictive measures and progress is seemingly being made on flattening the curve. Thoughts are turning to the exit strategy. India and.
#Emerging Markets #Covid19
Fire starter?
21 Apr 2020 - Dario PerkinsPolicymakers all over the world have responded forcefully to COVID-19, using war-time analogies to justify massive expansions in their budget deficits. With governments adding up to 20% pts of GDP to their national.
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Debt #Covid19
7 reasons the rally won't last
21 Apr 2020 - Andrea CicioneAndrea Cicione, our Head of Strategy, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, answer the following 7 questions: Equity markets have rallied on the back of unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. Why do we think.
#Federal Reserve #Covid19
Prospects for the recovery of the global oil market
03 Apr 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanOn January 1 Brent crude oil was trading above $66/bbl. Three months later, it had fallen by more than 60% from that level. A coronavirus-driven decline was followed by a collapse when the three-year old agreement.
#China #Oil & Gas #Covid19 #OPEC #Oil Price #Russia
Where are we in the COVID-19 crisis?
27 Mar 2020 - Andrea CicioneTS Lombard’s Head of Strategy Andrea Cicione recently published an extremely useful piece of analysis designed to answer four crucial questions for investors: Where are we in the Covid-19 crisis? How bad will it get?.
#Covid19 #Macro Strategy
Covid-19 Crisis Roadmap
26 Mar 2020 - Oliver BrennanThis framework will shape our thinking about the evolution of the global economy over the next several months as we look for signposts and signals in the markets, economic growth and the progression of the virus. Where.
#Covid19
World slump - weak rebound
26 Mar 2020 - Charles DumasWidespread hopes for a V-shaped recovery from the impending recession will probably be dashed. And stock markets are only likely to rebound sharply if they fall a lot further from here – at Tuesday's Close the S&P index.
#Equities #Recession #Covid19 #Bear Market
Sudden stop
13 Mar 2020 - Dario PerkinsIt has been clear for a while that the coronavirus posed a serious risk to the global economy. Yet the nature of this threat has changed dramatically. What looked like a temporary supply shock has morphed into a major.
#Covid19
Oil price declines and the impact on China’s energy complex
12 Mar 2020 - Stephen O'SullivanOil prices have been steadily declining in recent weeks as the impact of the coronavirus on energy demand in China and the rest of the world has become evident. This slide accelerated significantly at the beginning of.
#China #Oil & Gas #Covid19 #OPEC #Oil Price
The bear and fear stalk the world
10 Mar 2020 - Charles DumasGlobal spread of the Covid-19 virus looks likely to cause a worldwide recession and bear market in stocks. Nobody knows how serious the disease is likely to be. But The Brookings Institution’s estimates suggest a.
#Equities #Recession #Covid19 #Stock Market #Bear Market
