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Can Europe outperform during America’s COVID-19 second wave?
09 Jul 2020 - Dario PerkinsWith every macro data point we are learning more about the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. What have we discovered so far? First, the contraction in activity – the largest in modern history – is.
#Eurozone #Recession #Covid19
Investors can’t rely on central banks
24 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe bounce in global stock markets since March has been both spectacular and a bit puzzling. Despite widespread gloom among institutional investors about ‘fundamentals’ – concerning both the macro outlook and the.
#Central Banks #Federal Reserve #Liquidity #Equities #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market
Why we remain bears
23 Jun 2020 - Charles DumasThis blog summarises our View on our bearish views about US stock prices. Steve Blitz’s analysis of the US economy in 2020-21 shows the policy context for the November elections. But our pessimism about stock-market.
#US Economy #Covid19 #Stock Market #Bear Market
COVID-19 and secular stagnation - the next business cycle
16 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsCOVID-19 has resolved our most popular client question of the last five years – “when will this cycle end?’ Even as the number of infections slows and the lockdowns end, most economies will reopen to a serious global.
#Federal Reserve #Monetary Policy #Equities #Bond markets #Covid19
Further stimulus needed
10 Jun 2020 - Dario PerkinsAs the global economy exits “lockdown”, improving macro data will provide a further boost to investors determined to look-through the deepest economic contraction they will see in their lifetimes. Yet the economic.
#Covid19
Macro policy vs Covid-19 - Has policy done enough?
26 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe recovery in investor sentiment since March has been impressive (even puzzling...). Back then, as the global economy entered lockdown, a “flight-to-safety” rapidly became disorderly, leading to an outright.
#Central Banks #Balance Sheet #Fiscal Policy #Covid19
The war on deflation
15 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments and central banks to work together to support the economy. While most investors welcome these efforts – it is the reason global asset prices have recovered from their March.
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation #Recession #Covid19
The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?
01 May 2020 - Dario PerkinsWatching financial markets, it is tempting to think the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over. Equity values have bounced and credit spreads have narrowed, even as the oil market continues to suffer alarming strains..
#Monetary Policy #Recession #Fiscal Policy #Covid19 #Bear Market #Bull Market
Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn
29 Apr 2020 - Oliver BrennanOne month ago we introduced our crisis roadmap as our framework to think about the evolution of the global economy, financial markets and the path of the virus over the next several months. At the time, we reckoned we.
#Eurozone #US Economy #Covid19
Emerging Markets: The coming growth collapse
28 Apr 2020 - Jon HarrisonSome EM lockdowns are starting to ease. Many EM economies are now 3-4 weeks into restrictive measures and progress is seemingly being made on flattening the curve. Thoughts are turning to the exit strategy. India and.
#Emerging Markets #Covid19
