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Mid-cycle transition means no more low-hanging fruit
11 May 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisThis economic cycle has matured very quickly, courtesy of a strong policy response and the speedy arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19. Indeed, this has felt more like a bounce-back from a natural disaster.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #Bond markets
Commodity bull moving into mid-cycle
30 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisIt has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather.
#Federal Reserve #Commodities #Oil
Bond market takes a breather
14 Apr 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisIf there is one theme that marked the first quarter of 2021, it is the upturn in bond yields. February saw real interest rates take up the baton from inflation expectations as the primary force behind rising long US.
#Liquidity #Stimulus #Stock Market
Do consumers ever borrow again?
13 Apr 2021 - Steven BlitzIf the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too.
#Federal Reserve #Inflation #US Economy #Debt #Unemployment
Global Tourism: EU & China risk
29 Mar 2021 - Davide OnegliaOne year into the pandemic, still enduring tough restrictions on social life, entertainment activities, and leisure travel, we bet most people crave a long holiday. With the acceleration in the vaccine rollout,.
#Eurozone #China #Tourism
US recession is over - Backwards won't be the way forward
26 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzThe “non-Covid” recession ended late summer, timed, in part, by the November peak for the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff. What we call the non-Covid recession is simply the downturn that created job losses.
#Federal Reserve #Recession #US Economy #Fiscal Policy #Employment #Recovery
Secular turning point in inflation?
12 Mar 2021 - Dario PerkinsThese days, economists tend to assess monetary policy relative to some deep underlying interest rate (the “equilibrium rate”, or r*) which depends on structural forces and is largely beyond the control of central banks..
#Central Banks #Monetary Policy #Inflation
U.S. inflation has to wait
12 Mar 2021 - Steven BlitzAny inflationary process must wait for short rates to drift above what the Fed pays for bank reserves, until then its price changes inside a post-recession disinflationary trend. February CPI data underscore the.
#Inflation #Quantitative Easing #Recovery
ECB Yield Curve Control?
09 Mar 2021 - Davide OnegliaThe US bond sell-off last week sent waves through global bond markets causing Euro Area(EA) risk-free and sovereign debt curves to steepen at rapid pace, as investors offloaded long-term paper. ECB officials were fast.
#Eurozone #Yield curve #Fiscal Policy
Oil: new playbook, same old cycle
05 Mar 2021 - Konstantinos VenetisWe have often made the argument that although the nature of the Covid shock makes this macro cycle unique, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that this remains a cycle. The same is true of the oil market..
#Inflation #OPEC #Commodities #Oil
